WHAT'S NEXT FOR STRIPED BASS

For better or worse, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission adopted Addendum VI to Amendment 6 to the Atlantic Striped Bass Interstate Fishery Management Plan last October, and in February, the ASMFC ruled on the various states’ conservation equivalency proposals, and let two of them, New Jersey and Maryland, evade at least a portion of their original responsibilities under Addendum VI.

And for a while, that’s where it looked like things would stand; the ASMFC would implement a flawed—and perhaps doomed—effort to reduce fishing mortality all the way back to the target level, and completely ignore its obligation under the management plan to rebuild the bass stock within ten years.

It’s possible that, in a couple of years, the ASMFC might think about trying to eventually rebuild the stock when it considers a new Amendment 7 to the management plan.  Back in May 2019, a motion to begin such an Amendment, once Addendum VI was out of the way done, was put on the table, but that motion was postponed until the August meeting, then postponed again from August to this coming May, when most people expected the motion to pass—although whether the new amendment would really do anything to rebuild the spawning stock, or simply declared a diminished stock to be the new normal, was the subject of much debate, with a lot of folks who’ve watched how the ASMFC operates over the years betting pretty heavily on the latter outcome.

However, because of COVID-19 and associated restrictions on travel and meeting, the May ASMFC meeting will be held via webinar, with only the most essential actions to be taken.  The vote on beginning a new striped bass amendment will be delayed again, at least until the August Management Board meeting—assuming that the pandemic abates and meetings can be held by then.  So any possible effort to rebuild the stock will be pushed off that much longer.

Thus, at least for the foreseeable future, the striped bass’ fate is going to depend on Addendum VI, and its success in reducing fishing mortality to a sustainable level.  That success, in turn, is going to depend on whether the assumptions about angler behavior that underlie the Addendum accurately reflect what recreational fishermen actually do in real life, and on the timely and accurate monitoring of fishermen’s effort, catch and landings, to determine whether the management measures included in the Addendum are going to come close to getting the job done.

COVID-19 may have tossed all of those assumptions, and the ability to adequately monitor fishing activity, out the window.  But exactly how fallout from the virus might impact the striped bass fishery isn’t currently clear, and there’s no indication that things might get better any time soon.

Consider angling effort. 

Addendum VI assumed that anglers would react to the big 2015 striped bass year class in about the same way that they reacted to the large 2011 year class when it passed through the Chesapeake Bay and out onto the coast.  Otherwise, the Addendum assumed angler behavior was going to be the same as it was in 2017.  

With many people out of work as a result of the current pestilence, there is the possibility that angler effort will be heavier than expected, as people turn to the water to escape their homes for a while.  Such behavior has already been reported from the New Jersey side of Raritan Bay, where the season is open and anglers are showing up in droves to kill the big female bass staging ahead of their spawning run up the Hudson River.  Once the New York season opens on April 15, the landings in that bay will only increase.

Some states are encouraging people to get outside and go fishing, so long as they maintain proper distance from others.  Should idled workers turn to striped bass, whether for food or recreation, in greater than usual numbers up and down the coast, fishing mortality might not decrease as much as expected.  There’s a chance—although probably a very slim one—that it won’t decrease at all.

On the other hand, there are also forces militating against increased angling effort.  

People who lose their jobs, even temporarily, are less likely to have money to spend on recreational activities.  Many states, including both New York and New Jersey, have deemed party and charter boats “nonessential businesses,” and have temporarily closed them down in an effort to reduce the spread of COVID-19.  Other jurisdictions, including local municipalities, have shut down various beaches, marinas, boat ramps, fishing piers, parks and similar public facilities, making it more difficult for anglers to access the striped bass resource.

One state, Maryland, took a contrarian stance, and allowed its party and charter boats to continue doing business, with a maximum of 10 persons on board, but shut down all private boat and shore-based recreational fishing unless the anglers involved were fishing for food.  Catch and release striped bass fishing will be prohibited for the duration of the crisis.

The success of Addendum VI may hinge, at least in the short term, on whether the forces that could lead to increased angling effort are strong enough to overwhelm both the regulations adopted in response to the Addendum and the forces likely to cause an effort decline.

That may ultimately prove difficult, or impossible, to figure out.

Normally, the Marine Recreational Information Program’s catch and effort surveys would have begun in March, and increased in frequency as the fishing season got underway.  By mid-June, the first, preliminary numbers for striped bass landings would be released, and managers could get their first look at whether recreational catch, effort, and landings are responding to the new regulations.  As the season progressed, more and more data would be collected, and the impacts of Addendum VI could be gauged.

But this year, MRIP may not be operating normally.  I’ve already heard anecdotal reports suggesting that at least one northeastern state has decided not to hire about a dozen surveyors, who would normally be collecting catch data from anglers, presumably because dealing with anyone in-person these days can be bad for your health.  If that report is true, and if other states follow suit, managers could end up flying blind, with either no or insufficient reliable data on 2020 striped bass catch and landings. 

And that’s only on the recreational side.

Commercial landings, while far easier to document, may also prove difficult to predict.  Right now, due largely to restaurant closures, commercial fishermen are having difficulty selling not only striped bass, but just about everything that they catch.  Even when markets accept their fish, the prices have fallen through the floor.  That could reduce commercial fishing activity, as fishermen hope that if they wait to land their individual quotas, the price might rebound later in the year as travel and dining restrictions are relaxed.  It’s also possible that, if they land fish right now, they can sell them to local markets, while if they wait, they might not be able to land their full quota before the season ends.

There are just too many unknowns.

If COVID-19 plateaus this month, as one widely-respected model predicts, it’s possible that people will be back at their jobs, back in their boats, and back on the beaches, and that the for-hire fleet will be sailing, before too much of the bass season is lost.  If that occurs, states will probably be able to collect anglers’ catch data, commercial fishermen will be able to sell their product, and the year, though far from normal in many ways, won’t cause too many problems for striped bass managers.

On the other hand, if the virus hangs on, and disrupts business and pleasure for much of the season, 2020 could well prove to be a lost year for the striped bass, a kind of Twilight Zone where management stands still, insufficient data is gathered, and the state of the stock remains, in part, unknown.

Given the current crisis, those things may be unavoidable.  But what is avoidable is doing harm to the bass once the crisis is past.

I have very little doubt that, once things return to semi-normal, we'll be hearing lots of talk about "restoring the economy," and that part of that talk will be cries to "let people fish" by relaxing regulations to allow fishermen, and fishing-related businesses, to make up for lost time.

Heeding such calls would be a mistake; impoverishing the future, in an effort to ensure today's prosperity, has never worked out very well.

Once COVID-19 is under control, and our own health has been secured, we need to ensure that the health of the striped bass, and all of our natural resources, are not sacrificed in the name of “the economy,” or for any other reason.  

As always, caution is advised.