The new permit applications attempt to address the issues
raised in the court’s decision, in an effort to ensure that, if new exempted
fishing permits are issued, they will survive any new court challenge. This time around, North
Carolina is not participating in the exempted fishing permit process, and has
asked NMFS to set the 2026 red snapper season off the North Carolina coast.
In its request for comments on the new applications for
exempted fishing permits, NMFS advises that
“The stated primary purposes for these EFPs are to improve
data on recreational fishing effort, catch, and discards of red snapper in the
South Atlantic, and to inform the development of a long-term state-led
management strategy for the recreational harvest of red snapper. Additional purposes for the EFPs
include: (1) evaluating mandatory
electronic reporting programs for monitoring catch; (2) providing recreational
fishermen on privately owned vessels (private vessels, private anglers) and the
owners or operators of charter vessels or headboats (for-hire fishermen)
increased fishing opportunities for red snapper; (3) quantifying angler
participation and characterizing angler behavior; and (4) collecting related
biological information from the fishery.
The percent standard error estimates for the recreational harvest of red
snapper are high, indicating low precision and significant uncertainty that
would benefit from improved data collection efforts and approaches. Better data could reduce the uncertainty
around the estimates of harvest and discards from the recreational sector. These proposed EFPs aim to address these
challenges by improving recreational catch estimation and reducing discards so
fishing opportunities can increase.”
To achieve those goals, the three states submitting
applications
“each requested exemptions to certain Federal regulations for
the proposed projects in the South Atlantic.
“1. 50 CFR
622.181(c)(2) limits the harvest and possession of red snapper to the specified
season, and applies these limitations to a federally permitted for-hire vessel
in both state and Federal waters.
“2. 50 CFR
622.183(b)(5)(i) specifies when the recreational season will occur each year.
“3. 50 CFR
622.193(y)(2) specifies the annual catch limit and accountability measures
applicable to the recreational harvest of red snapper."
NMFS must now decide whether those exemptions are
appropriate to achieve the purposes of the requested permits.
Trump
himself (or, at least, someone acting in his name and stead) went onto Truth
Social to celebrate the issuance of the EFPs, suggesting that the industry had
friends very high up in the Administration, who were pulling the
right strings and doing the expected favors to get the job done. (Perhaps it even recruited a major contributor
to MAGA Inc. or to the now-enjoined East Wing ballroom, and so had made the
requisite payment for administration attention.)
The states were so certain that politics would carry the day
that they pointedly defied—not ignored, or neglected to follow, but pointedly defied—a
regulatory requirement that the
“application package must include…[t]he species
(target and incidental) expected to be harvested under the EFP, [and] the
amounts of such harvest necessary to conduct the exempted fishing. [emphasis added]”
“[NOAA] asks for a number of fish to be harvested in the
EFP. And in conversations with NOAA
leadership, it was suggested to ‘throw out a number’ for consideration. The Florida EFP limits harvest by number of
fishing days and other fishery management tools, e.g. bag and aggregate bag
limits. The results will inform future
management and conservation of the fishery in the region. The EFP is not predicated on a number of
fish, and for NOAA to request a number—even an estimated number—is
inappropriate and unnecessary. The State
of Florida uses similar approaches with state-managed fisheries with routine
success in conservation outcomes. NOAA’s
request to guess at a number is inconsistent with scientific management
standards at the FWC. [emphasis
in original]”
Florida (and the industry organizations that it was
supporting) effectively told Lutnick, “F*** you. We’re doing it our way. We don’t need to follow your rules. The fix is already in.”
And that apparently worked with Lutnick, because the EFPs
were ultimately issued, but it didn’t do so well once the courts got
involved. In fact, Florida’s (and other
states’) failure to play by the rules was one of the reasons that the EFPs
issued in May were enjoined.
For while the fix might have been in at the administrative
branch, the judicial branch still believed in the law, and required NMFS to
comply.
Although the Florida application is an extensive, multi-page
document, it is largely dependent on the argument that the Florida State Reef
Fish Survey, a state survey designed to complement and enhance the Federal
Marine Recreational Information Program, including its Fishing Effort Survey, is
a more precise survey than the Marine Recreational Information Program itself. That argument is key, as Florida argues that
“MRIP-FES was not designed to collect data for rare-event
species, like Atlantic red snapper, or for fisheries that have very short
recreational fishing seasons.
Conversely, SRFS was designed to collect data at a more regional level
on reef-associated species that are found in deep, offshore waters such as the
Atlantic red snapper…SRFS yields more accurate catch, effort, and discard data
for the South Atlantic red snapper stock as compared to MRIP-FES. Specifically, the more precise SRFS estimates
of Atlantic red snapper catch, effort, and discards are 4 times smaller, 1.2
times smaller, and 2.1 times smaller than the MRIP-FES, respectively. [formatting omitted]”
Those lower estimates are important, because if they are
accurate, they will create a pool of fish that Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina anglers might exploit, pursuant to the exempted fishing permits, without
necessarily overfishing the red snapper stock.
Thus, Florida argued,
“the proportion of landings and releases were determined
using MRIP data for each state from 1981 to 2024. SRFS data (annual estimates of releases and
landings) were calibrated to MRIP-FES data using previously certified methods
to determine annual South Atlantic total estimates of releases and landings for
the private recreational sector. To
determine a specific annual private recreational estimate of releases and
landings for each individual South Atlantic state, the annual proportion
estimates for each state were multiplied by the total annual South Atlantic
releases (or landings) as estimated by MRIP and as estimated by calibrated-SRFS
data. Because SRFS was calibrated to MRIP,
the estimates derived can be directly comparable, as they are in a ‘common
currency.’
“…[C]alibrated SRFS data results in significantly fewer
releases and landings throughout the year than MRIP-FES for all states. Because SRFS higher precision than MRIP-FES
for both releases and landings, SRFS data can be treated with greater
confidence than MRIP-FES. Next, a 3-year
average (2021-2024) of releases and landings using MRIP-FES and SRFS data was
directly compared to assess the magnitude of differences in estimates of
releases and, therefore, dead discards, as well as landings between the two
programs…A 25.7 percent discard mortality rate was applied to both MRIP-FES and
SRFS release estimates to determine the average annual number of recreational
dead discards in each state. This
discard mortality rate was recommended for use in the SEDAR 90 Data Workshop as
a ‘general recreational fleet’ discard mortality rate.
“Ultimately, this comparison indicated that the average annual
estimate of dead discards (2021-2024) from MRIP-FES is 586,194 fish compared to
272,623 fish estimated by SRFS. Because
MRIP-FES and SRFS are calibrated in this analysis, the 313,571-fish difference
is not trivial. The dead discard
calculation determined by NMFS in the SEDAR 73 update used MRIP-FES data and
not SRFS data. This is the stock assessment
that informed Secretarial Amendment 59, which established the current catch
limits for Atlantic red snapper.
Presently, 93 percent (475,000 fish) of the red snapper annual catch
limit (‘ACL’) (509,000 fish) are assumed to be dead discards and are removed
from the catch limit before a single hook hits the water. In Amendment 59, 97.4 percent of dead
discards (463,033 fish) are attributed to the recreational sector. However, the above analysis, which imputes
other South Atlantic states to calibrated SRFS data, highlights an estimated average
difference of more than 215 percent in the number of dead discards between
MRIP-FES and SRFS in the South Atlantic in recent years…Viewing the SRFS
data as the [best scientific information available] for Atlantic red snapper
(rather than MRIP-FES), a significant portion of the 463,033 dead discards (as
assumed under MRIP-FES data) could actually be accounted for as landings with
no biological harm to the stock.
“…To ensure continued progress in rebuilding and to prevent
overfishing, it is necessary to convert the current catch limits (and dead
discard estimates) from their current data currency (MRIP) to an SRFS equivalent. Based on the previous analysis, the annual
estimate of dead discards from MRIP is 584,194 fish, compared to 272,623 fish estimated
by SRFS. The ratio of these two
estimates represents a conversion factor of 2.15020009. To convert the dead discard estimate from MRIP
units to an SRFS equivalent, the conversion factor was applied to the MRIP
estimate (i.e., 463,033 dead discards) and equated to a 215,344.1 fish dead
discard equivalent in SRFS units. Because
SRFS was calibrated to MRIP in the previous analysis, the difference between these
two dead discard estimates (i.e., 463,033 fish – 215,344 fish = 247,688 fish)
should be available for harvest, and key reference points related to
overfishing could still be maintained, albeit in SRFS currency.
“Similarly, an SRFS equivalent to the harvestable
recreational ACL (i.e., 22,787 fish in MRIP units) must be determined. Using the same approach described above for
releases, from 2021-2024, the average annual estimate of landings for all South
Atlantic states from MRIP is 212,017.91 fish and the SRFS annual average
estimate is 26,709.93 fish. With MRIP
nearly an order of magnitude higher than SRFS the conversion factor for
landings is 7.937792. To convert the
22,787 fish ACL from MRIP units into an SRFS equivalent, the landings conversion
factor was applied to the MRIP ACL to equate to a 2,870 fish ACL equivalent in
SRFS units. When combined with the
dead discard savings that could be transformed into harvest by using SRFS over
MRIP, (i.e., 247,688 fish), the new SRFS-equivalent harvestable ACL by the
recreational sector would be 250,559 fish (i.e., 247,688 + 2,870 fish) in the
South Atlantic. [emphasis added,
references omitted]”
Thus, Florida made its case that issuance of the exempted
fishing permits would not lead to legally-prohibited overfishing.
Does its argument make sense? Quite honestly, I lack the statistical knowledge,
as well as the specific knowledge about the State Reef Fish Survey, needed to
make that judgement. However, there are
a couple of things that stand out.
In the “Purposes and Goals” section of its application,
Florida states that
“The purpose of this EFP is to allow the FWC to conduct a pilot
study in 2026 to test two methods for recreational data
collection and for catch, effort and discard monitoring. These methodologies could then be potentially
applied by the State of Florida for management of the private recreational and
licensed for-hire components (state and federal) within the red snapper fishery
off Florida’s Atlantic coast in state and federal waters: (1) Florida SRFS and (2) a
voluntary smartphone web-based application during trips where a red snapper is
harvested… [emphasis added]”
And with that, it suddenly appears that Florida has snared
itself in a trap made of circular logic.
One of the primary purposes of the applied-for exempted
fishing permit is to “conduct a pilot study to test” Florida
SRFS as a method “for recreational data collection and for catch, effort, and
discard monitoring.”
The very words “a pilot study in 2026 to test”
clearly suggests that, at this point, the efficacy of Florida SRFS as a recreational
data collection methodology remains unproven and unknown.
Yet, at the same time, Florida is using SRFS-derived data—or
at least data calibrated in “SRFS units”—to explain why both dead discards and
landings are lower than MRIP data suggests, and thus why issuing the EFPs and
allowing the proposed 31-day fishing season won’t lead to legally prohibited
overfishing.
Florida really can’t have it both ways.
Either the exempted fishing permits are needed to test
Florida SRFS as a valid recreational data collection methodology, in which case
SRFS data hasn’t yet been established as superior to MRIP, and can’t be used to
demonstrate that overfishing will not occur if the EFPs are issued, or Florida
SRFS has already proven itself to be reliable, in which case the
exempted fishing permits—and the 31 day season—are not needed to establish that
survey’s validity.
But to use a methodology that still needs to be tested to “prove”
that anglers are killing fewer fish than MRIP suggests, and thus makes a
quarter-million red snapper available for fishing under the EFPs—effectively saying
that SRFS data proves that testing the SRFS as a data collection methodology
won’t lead to overfishing because the methodology still being tested says so—hardly
seems like a winning strategy.
Even if the SRFS data is taken at face value, it’s not clear
why “When combined with the dead discard savings that could be transformed into
harvest by using SRFS over MRIP, (i.e., 247,688 fish), the new SRFS-equivalent
harvestable ACL by the recreational sector would be 250,559 fish
(i.e., 247,688 + 2,870 fish) in the South Atlantic.
“While the total ACL, and ABC, is equal to 509,000 fish,
separated into 34,000 fish from the total ACL that is used to apportion each
sector based on the current sector allocations is the result of what remains
from the total ACL after accounting for the dead discards (509,000 minus
475,000)…Using the current sector allocation ratio of 28.07 percent commercial
and 71.93 percent recreational as applied to the 34,000 fish, this final rule
specifies a commercial ACL of 102,951 lb (46,698 kg), and a recreational ACL of
22,797 fish.”
The allocation doesn’t take place until after all
of the dead discards, generated by both sectors, are subtracted
from the ACL. Given that existing
methodology, should Florida’s calculations be correct, and dead discards are
really 247,688 fish lower than currently believed, not all of those fish should
be allocated to the recreational sector, nor should all of them be used to hopefully
prevent overfishing should the requested 31-day recreational season be put into
place.
Instead, the allocation currently in the management plan
should be applied, and only 178,162 fish—71.93 percent—of the supposedly
available red snapper applied to the EFP, while the remaining 28.07 percent is
allocated to increase the commercial quota.
Of course, we shouldn’t let ourselves ever believe that
flaws in the EFP applications, whether logical loops or incorrect allocations, are
going to have any impact on whether NMFS eventually issues the EFPs.
As was the case in May, the fix is in at the
administrative branch, and NMFS is going to issue the permits,
regardless of the applications’ merits.
That’s just the plain, if unpleasant, truth.
The question is what happens next.
The
permits issued in May were clearly illegal.
As the court noted, NMFS never even tried to address concerns that
serious overfishing would occur if the permits were not enjoined; the agency
didn’t even require the states submitting applications to comply with the
relevant regulations. While no
lawsuit is ever a slam-dunk, NMFS actions last spring were very hard to defend.
This time, it’s a little different. Florida, and by extension, Georgia and South
Carolina, have presented an argument as to why a 31-day season won’t lead to
overfishing, based on SRFS data. The
argument might be logically circular, using what Florida admits is an untested
system to prove that overfishing won’t occur, but it has nonetheless been made. Yet after the comment period ends on August
25, NMFS can—and will—find that Florida’s argument was convincing, that
overfishing will not occur, and that the exempted fishing permits may be
issued.
Given the legal standard for overturning agency decisions—that
there only needs to be some evidence on the record that supports the agency
action, even if there are far more comments that suggest that the agency action
is wrong—such a finding will likely be very difficult to overturn.
In such case, the commercial sector can only hope that they might
claim a somewhat larger annual catch limit as a consolation prize.
As to what will happen to the red snapper itself, who can
know?
While the stock is no longer overfished or—at least right
now—subject to overfishing, the
age structure remains slanted toward smaller fish, skewing its spawning
potential toward the low side. It’s
not inconceivable that removing larger numbers of those small fish will depress
spawning potential in the long term, and impact the sustainability of the red
snapper fishery. Maybe the stock will
just muddle along, neither overfished nor fully restored, for years into the
future. Or maybe it will produce a few
more strong year classes, and be fully rebuilt, despite the issuance of the
EFPs.
Right now, it’s hard to tell.
But one thing is certain:
In moving forward with the applications for exempted fishing permits,
NMFS, the states, and the industry organizations behind the effort are emphasizing
short-term exploitation over the long-term health of the red snapper stock.
And that’s always the wrong thing to do.