The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission has never
been known for its fast responses to fisheries issues.
We
saw it again in 2019, after a new benchmark assessment also tripped a trigger
requiring a striped bass rebuilding plan, and the Bass Board decided to
initiate a full-blown Amendment 7—a process that took two full years—before addressing
the rebuilding issue
(although, to be fair, it did at least adopt the emergency regulations in 2023,
after high recreational landings in 2022 rendered timely rebuilding, without
additional management action, unlikely).
I mention striped bass because they’ve been called the ASMFC’s
“flagship species,” but the history of ASMFC delays extends well into the past,
and touches on multiple species.
“suspend consideration of any state’s compliance with the F40
contained in Addendum I, as amended by Addendum 2 [sic], pending development of
a new amendment to the [fishery management plan], as long as a state maintains
and continues to implement and enforce its current regulations,”
and in doing so perhaps dashed the last hope of preventing
the collapse of the Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic winter flounder stock.
So no, the ASMFC isn’t particularly quick to take action to rebuild
stocks or reduce fishing mortality to levels that are sustainable in the long
term. But even within the ASMFC
universe, some species seem to be singled out for greater delays and less
management action.
Of those, American
lobster have probably suffered the most malign neglect, with the American
Lobster Management Board presiding over the collapse of the Southern New England
stock, pointedly ignoring repeated scientific advice to shut down the fishery
for at least five years, and expressing far more concern for the short-term
interests of lobster fishermen than the lobster resource itself. Recently, as
recruitment in the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank stock declined, we see history
repeating itself there, although in that case, the ASMFC was also plagued with a
political climate that might well have frustrated the an efforts that it might
have decided to make.
But right behind American lobster, we find the tautog, a
fish that the ASMFC has managed since 1996 and, after 30 years, still can’t
seem to get right.
The
original fishery management plan, adopted in 1996, begins with the statement,
“The Plan defines overfishing as a rate of fishing mortality
exceeding the natural mortality rate (M=0.15).
This overfishing definition is consistent with the slow growth and long
lifespan of this species. In addition,
this conservative reference point is warranted given the uncertainty in stock structure
and in the spawning biomass required to maintain at least average recruitment.”
That seemed like a pretty good start, because managers didn’t
know very much about the tautog resource.
“The primary reason for the development of a tautog
[fishery management plan] is the vulnerability of tautog to overfishing…Fisheries
managers lack most of the biological and fisheries data necessary for effective
management of the tautog resource.
Estimates of recreational and commercial catches are poor. Information on migration and critical habitat
utilization are lacking in most of the species range. Inadequate data are available on size and age
distribution, natural and fishing mortality rates, and recruitment. Little information is available on critical
habitat availability, current habitat status, or the capability of artificial
habitats to expand species abundance…Because of the uncertainties associated
with all aspects of the tautog resource, an interstate cooperative effort is
needed to effectively manage this species.
[emphasis added]”
Managers were effectively caught up in a fog of uncertainty,
and as anyone who has ever run a boat in the fog knows all too well, when you can’t
see where you’re going, you need to exercise extreme caution at all times to
avoid running aground.
While biologists know more about the tautog’s life history today
than they did 30 years ago, even in 1996, the ASMFC was already aware of the basic
principles—conservative management based on the life history of the species, as
well as the scientific (and later management) uncertainty surrounding the
tautog and the tautog fishery—that should guide tautog management.
But as we soon learned, there was a big difference between
the ASMFC knowing how to properly approach tautog management, and actually
putting that knowledge into practice.
Management stumbled right from the start. While the management plan defined overfishing
as a fishing mortality rate that exceeded F=0.15, it also explicitly allowed
overfishing to occur in 1997 and 1998, setting the target fishing mortality
rate for those years at F=0.24, after which it was supposed to be lowered to the
fishing mortality threshold of F=0.15.
And yes, the target fishing mortality was set to equal the
overfishing threshold; the Tautog Management Board decided to skate along the
razor’s edge, setting management measures that resided right at the threshold
level. It left no margin for error at
all.
Thus, it set a commercial and recreational size limit of 13
inches in 1997 and 14 inches in 1998 and beyond, and left it up to the states
to adopt whatever additional measures were needed to achieve the required
reduction in fishing mortality. It wasn’t
quite clear what those additional management measures needed to be, but with the
fishing mortality rate estimated at somewhere between F=0.58 and F=0.77, it was
clear that very substantial restrictions were needed.
Facing the uncertainties inherent in the fisheries data, and
the difficulties states would have in crafting management measures, it didn’t
take long before the ASMFC decided to punt.
Stating that
“The implementation schedule approved in the original Tautog
[Fishery Management Plan] may be problematic because (1) data are not available
to evaluate scheduled regulatory obligations, and (2) the implementation
schedule is not consistent for all states.
The FMP required all states to submit a commercial fishery management
proposal in October 1996 for review by the Technical Committee and approval by
the Board. During this review it became
apparent that the data are insufficient to satisfactorily evaluate the current
fishing mortality in a number of states and to properly evaluate state fishing
mortality reduction proposals. Fortunately,
many states began increased data collection efforts in 1996 that will lead to
more accurate estimation of fishing mortality on both a coastwide and regional
basis. It will take time for this data
to be analyzed and incorporated into the management program. Also, some states have indicated that the
differential compliance schedule is inequitable,”
the Tautog Management Board adopted Amendment 1 to the
management plan in 1997.
It wasn’t a strategy designed for success, and it probably
wouldn’t have worked, but we’ll never know, because in
1999, the ASMFC punted again, adopting Addendum II to the management plan,
which stated that
“The implementation schedule in Addendum I has been a problem
given the life history of tautog and the relatively short duration that the
current regulations have been implemented.
According to Addendum I the states were required to implement management
measures to meet the F=0.24 requirement by April 1, 1998. Therefore, as of September 1999, these
regulations have only been implemented for about 17 months.
“Addendum I also requires that the states submit proposals to
meet the F=0.15 target by October 1, 1999.
The Technical Committee is developing a stock assessment to evaluate the
effects of the current regulations and determine the extent of reductions that
will need to be made by the states to meet the F=0.15 target. During the development of the assessment the Technical
Committee has often noted that the effects of the current regulations may not
be reflected in the assessment.
“The assessment will use the data that has been collected
through 1998. Therefore, only nine
months (April-December 1998) of data reflecting the new management regime will
be included in the assessment. Given the
fact that the assessment will supply limited advice on the effects of the
current regulations, the Management Board approved delaying the
implementation of the F=0.15 target for two years, until April 1, 2022. [emphasis added]”
So, once again, the Management Board was willing to let
overfishing continue, rather than impose some sort of precautionary management
that might get it under control.
By this time, we’re starting to see a pattern emerge where,
when faced with uncertainty, the Tautog Management Board is far more willing to
let overfishing continue, and risk further harm to the stock, than it is to
impose more restrictive management measures that might end up reducing the
fishing mortality rate more than is absolutely necessary.
That bias toward risking overharvest, rather than reducing
landings more than might be required, has often haunted ASMFC deliberations,
but has been a particular trait of the Tautog Management Board for the past
three full decades.
By 2002, when fishing mortality was supposed to have been
reduced to F=0.15, biologists had finally amassed some meaningful information
on the tautog’s life history, which suggested that the stock could sustain a
fishing mortality rate of F=0.29. A
recent stock assessment indicated that fishing mortality had been reduced from
F=0.71 to F=0.41, so additional management measures were still needed, but it
appeared that abundance had increased modestly, although spawning stock biomass
had declined.
Things seemed to still be headed in the right direction,
albeit very slowly. But later
in the same year, the Management Board decided to rethink its decision to make
the recreational sector pay the full price of rebuilding the tautog stock,
while commercial fishermen got a pass.
It adopted Addendum V to the management plan, which allowed states to achieve
the required 25.6% reduction in fishing mortality by imposing new measures on
both recreational and commercial fishermen.
“The 2011 tautog stock assessment update estimated that the
tautog stock is overfished with overfishing occurring. Spawning stock biomass (SSB) has
remained at low levels for the last decade. A reduction in the target F is necessary to
rebuild the stock. [emphasis added]”
It turned out that the original tautog management plan,
adopted in 1996, had gotten things right all along, despite the lack of needed
biological information. To rebuild the
stock, the fishing mortality rate needed to be reduced to the same F=0.15
proposed in that original plan. Raising
the target fishing mortality rate in the interim, although done in good faith,
ultimately resulted in nothing more than a stalled rebuilding timeline.
“Based on the 2015 Benchmark Stock Assessment and Peer Review
Report, tautog is overfished and overfishing is occurring on a coastwide scale,”
so it became clear that Addendum VI, despite its reduced
fishing mortality target, was nowhere near restrictive enough to turn things
around.
Up in New England, Massachusetts and Rhode Island were
acting on their own, putting more restrictive regulations in place in an effort
to recover their local tautog population.
Their efforts seemed to be working, with spawning stock biomass increasing
and the fishing mortality rate trending down.
Amendment 1 made that sort of thing easier to do, as it
recognized that the coastwide tautog stock is made up of local populations that
don’t engage in extensive migrations. The
Amendment broke the stock up into four regional populations, Massachusetts/Rhode
Island, Long Island Sound, New Jersey/New York Bight, and Delaware/Maryland/Virginia,
each of which would have different, regionally-appropriate biological reference
points for spawning stock biomass and fishing mortality rate, and be governed
by different regulations.
Amendment 1’s new approach held a lot of promise, and was
arguably the first truly meaningful effort to manage tautog in over 20
years. Before Amendment 1, tautog
management could be characterized as a light-handed approach, where half-measures
were imposed in an effort to minimize disruptions to the fishery. Amendment 1, on the other hand, seemed an
earnest effort to overhaul tautog management and fully rebuild all four local
populations.
At the same time, Amendment 1 didn’t go as far as it should
have to reduce fishing mortality and rebuild the stock, due to substantial
opposition from the for-hire fishing industry, which took an aggressive stand
against any landings reductions.
More than got away with it, as things turned out, because they
convinced New York’s ASMFC delegation to oppose any management measures with a
measurable probability of success.
And New York wasn’t alone, as at
the October 2017 Tautog Management Board meeting, where Amendment 1 was
approved, Toni Kearns, the ASMFC’s Fisheries Policy Director, noted that
“As a reminder of the option in the document itself, for the
probability of achieving the F target. The
addendum [sic] had two options; either status quo, which was no
probability or Option B, which was a 50 percent probability of achieving the F
target.
“There was a range of support for status quo throughout the
different hearings, as well as some support for the 50 percent probability.”
What that basically meant is that most of the stakeholders
who commented wanted an amendment more likely to fail than succeed, just so
long as they could keep killing tautog.
And in some places, such as Long Island Sound and New Jersey/New York
Bight, they got exactly what they asked for.
That
sort-of worked out for Long Island Sound, where the stock is no longer overfished
nor subject to overfishing, but it didn’t do so well for the New Jersey/New
York Bight population, which still experiences overfishing (as did the Delaware/Maryland/Virginia
population, although there, the best estimates are that overfishing no
longer occurs).
So, the Management Board set about drafting a new Addendum I
that would impose a 40% reduction in fishing mortality, and have a 50%
probability of getting the fishing mortality rate down to or below target by
the year 2030.
I have to admit that I was happy about that, as the New
Jersey/New York Bight population is the one that we catch here on the South
Shore of Long Island. I have fond
memories of hooking up to one of the pilings of the Robert Moses Bridge back in
the mid-1980s, and going through four dozen—sometimes six dozen—green crabs on
a single tide while fishing alone, hooking up tautog almost as soon as my bait
hit the bottom. Yes, many were
throwbacks, but there were enough 2- to 5-pounders in those old, no-bag limit
days to put enough fish in the freezer to last well into the winter. While I never expect to see that kind of
fishing again, the ability to get out and reliably put even a couple of
blackfish on ice would certainly be a good thing,.
But at the same time, given the history of tautog
management, and the ASMFC’s tendency to delay action on all things tautog, I
have to admit that, deep in my gut, I had doubts that Addendum I would move go
anywhere.
And, unfortunately, my gut turned out to be right.
Once again, uncertainty in the data gave members of the
Management Board pause.
And, once again, given the choice between doing nothing, and
perhaps allowing overfishing to continue, or taking action, and perhaps adopting
regulations that were overly restrictive, and might allow a few more tautog than
needed to remain alive, the Management Board opted for overfishing, apparently
considering it the lesser evil of the two.
“that further action on Tautog Addendum I is postponed until
projections to determine the reduction required to meet a 50% probability of
achieving the F target in 2030 are updated using the most recent three-year
average removals from 2024-2026 (in the current MRIP currency) after final 2026
MRIP estimates are released. An option
to allow the Board to take management action via Board action following the
results of the Benchmark Assessment should be developed by the [Plan
Development Team]. Board action can only
be used if the upcoming Benchmark Assessment shows that Fishing Mortality needs
to be reduced or that it can be liberalized by 10% or greater to
have a 50% probability of achieving the F-target by 2030. [emphasis added]”
The motion was seconded by New Jersey fisheries manager
Joseph Cimino.
And so, a full 30 years after the ASMFC decided to involve
itself with tautog management, much remains unchanged. Uncertainly still plagues the management
process, particularly with regard to current landings, and the Tautog
Management Board is still biased against taking action to protect the stock, if
there is a risk that, by doing so, they might unnecessarily limit landings.
Mr. Hornstein’s rationale for making the motion was straightforward.
“…in 2024, removals in the Bight and in the DelMarVa region
as well declined and they were even lower in 2025 in the Bight. The projection that we used to calculate the
required reduction in fishing mortality use the 2022 to 2024 average to estimate
removals in 2025 and 2026. And now that
we have the final 2025 removals, we know that the estimate used in the
projections was an overestimate. And
given the decline in removals over the last two years, we’re potentially
responding to a level of fishing mortality that may no longer be occurring to
the same magnitude that it once did.
Generally speaking, there is a lot of uncertainty around tautog. MRIP plays a big role in our assessments. Tautog has higher [percent standard error]
compared to other popular fisheries, and removals are highly variable from year
to year. In addition, New York data is split
between—our MRIP data is split in a way that was never intended to be for MRIP
data to be used between the Sound and the Bight, so we can manage those two
stocks separately. We’re going to be receiving
calibrated MRIP data and get a new assessment in the next couple of years which
will include new regional surveys and further evaluation of the large
retrospective pattern that we see in the assessments. So there’s a lot changing
that should improve our confidence and our understanding of the tautog
population.”
And everything that he said was completely true. But that still begs the critical question.
Uncertainty cuts both ways.
If there is a lot of room for error in the recreational landings
estimates, we can’t assume that landings are, and will always be, lower
than previously predicted. It is very
possible, given the higher percent standard error in the MRIP estimates, that
recreational landings in 2024 and 2025 were actually higher than
the point estimates, and that the uncertainty that managers are facing could be
masking a greater level or removals than previously believed.
In such a highly uncertain environment, doesn’t it make
sense to adopt more precautionary regulations, that hedge against unexpectedly
high landings, rather than to potentially allow overfishing to continue, and
erode the tautog stock, perhaps at a faster than expected rate?
Maybe so, but the Tautog Management Board, over the last three
decades, has never thought that way, and has consistently avoided the more
risk-averse outcomes.
Mr. Hornstein at least acknowledged the risk, although he
immediately dismissed it, saying,
“While there’s risk involved in waiting another year to take
action, there’s a high probability that [spawning stock biomass] is not in
danger of becoming overfished during this time.
And although this will delay action likely until the annual meeting in
2027, it will still allow for the implementation of new measures by 2028 as
required by the [fishery management plan].”
But one part of Mr. Hornstein’s motion did seem a little
odd, and that was allowing the Management Board to liberalize tautog
regulations without going through the addendum and public hearing process. Such
unilateral Board action is unusual, and generally disfavored by members of
ASMFC management boards; we saw that in December 2024, when the Atlantic
Striped Bass Management Board decided not to take unilateral action to protect
the large 2018 year class from recreational harvest in 2025, when it would be
entering the slot size limit, even though the survival of the 2018s is needed if
the currently overfished striped bass stock is to be rebuilt.
Usually, such unilateral Board action is reserved for those
rare times when it is needed to stem a stock decline; using Board action,
rather than the addendum process, to allow fishermen to increase their landings
might well be unprecedented in the history of the ASMFC.
Yet, if such a precedent is being broken, it doesn’t
surprise me that it is the Tautog Management Board who is doing so. It just fits in with how they’ve managed the
stock from the very start. Mr. Hornstein
ultimately laid out what seems to be the Tautog Management Board’s guiding philosophy
for the last 30 years:
“Cuts to any fishery always inflict some economic pain and we
owe it to the public not to cause more pain than is necessary…This is still a
cautious approach as SSB is not at risk of changing status, and we’re taking a
justifiable path to make sure that we’re getting it as right as we can. And I think this is, you know, help build
trust between the public and management.
And I’m concerned that if we continue to move forward without pausing to
rerun these numbers, we’re in a less defensible position, especially if the
next assessment completely changes our understanding of the population.”
Fair enough.
But once again, the traditional Tautog Management Board bias
is all too apparent.
Yes, unnecessary harvest reductions do inflict unnecessary
economic pain. But so does the failure
to impose necessary harvest reductions. Just consider the economic losses
attributable to fishery managers’ failure to avoid the collapse of the Southern
New England/Mid-Atlantic winter flounder stock.
The failure to initiate a striped bass rebuilding plan in 2014, which could
well have positioned the stock to better endure the its current recruitment
problems. And yes, the Tautog Management
Board’s failure to buckle down and adopt precautionary measures back in 1996,
which could have rendered Amendment I completely unnecessary.
A lot of potential economic benefits were lost when those three
fisheries went into decline.
But the Tautog Board always worries about the economic consequences
of reducing landings, and ignores the economic consequences of declining fish
stocks, even though the latter consequences are just as real and can endure for
a far longer time.
The same sort of bias attends the notion of “building trust,”
because at this point, the only thing that I, and other folks whom I know,
trust the Tautog Management Board to do is delay, and fail, and then delay
again, because that’s just what it’s done for the past 30 years, demonstrating
that they are more afraid of being blamed for declining landings than they are
of being blamed for declining tautog abundance.
The Board might want people to trust that it won’t require unneeded landings
reductions, but doesn’t seem to care if no one trusts them to return the stock
to full and sustainable health.
Even with respect to the stock assessment, we see the same
sort of thing; a Management Board worried that the next stock assessment will reveal
that the stock is healthier than they believed.
But there seems to be no worry that the next assessment will show a
stock in worse shape than managers thought, even though, if that
occurred, it would seem to cast even more doubt on their credibility as
competent fisheries managers.
At least a few of the Board members disagreed with that risk-prone
approach. Dr. Jason McNamee, the Rhode
Island fishery manager, acknowledged that the motion didn’t affect his state’s
fishery, but asked that, since none of the data appeared problematic, why would
the Board want to delay the management process until new data might be
obtained.
He went on to say that
“This just feels like a really bad idea. This is not a species that you can knock
down. It does not come back
quickly. So, I am nervous for us and the
folks that may be having issues with their fishery.”
Unfortunately, Dr. McNamee held the minority view.
Adam Nowalsky, New Jersey’s Legislative Proxy, argued that
“to go ahead and essentially penalize the fishing community
in the New Jersey/New York Bight region, which does not have an overfished
status, with 40% reductions that were based on at least one year of projections
that we know now are not correct, I think that’s a very valid data issue.”
Nowalsky’s comments were interesting, given that he seemed
willing to give full credence to the 2025 MRIP tautog data, saying that, based
on that data, we have “one year of projections that we know now are not correct.”
But at
the Atlantic Striped Bass Management Board meeting last October, he struck a
very different pose, making it a point to oppose a projection using just one
year of MRIP data to support a 12% landings reduction.
It seems that he’s only willing to rely on one year of data when
it can be used to justify killing more fish.
But the discussion went on from there, and in the end, a
thin sort of compromise was reached.
So Addendum I isn’t dead, and there is a very real hope that
we might see a new draft of that addendum approved for public comment in the
not-too-distant future, maybe this fall, or maybe in the first half of 2027.
But given the history and the
biases of the Tautog Management Board, and its 30-year trend of subordinating
the long-term health of the tautog stock to the short-term interests of
fishermen, you still might not want to hope too hard.
Things can always be delayed
again.