Sunday, September 21, 2025

FACING THE CONSEQUENCES, WHEN FISHERIES MANAGEMENT FAILS

 

I’ve been attending fisheries meetings for nearly 50 years, ever since the striped bass began to collapse and people started making their first halting efforts to address the problem.  By and large, well thought-out management measures have usually worked, often despite the efforts of some fishermen, and much of the recreational and commercial fishing industries, who remained firmly focused on the short term, and what they can harvest today, and never spent enough time contemplating the future or what might happen should a fish stock collapse.

I was reminded of that once again last Wednesday evening, when I attended an Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission hearing on striped bass, and heard almost every industry representative oppose conservation measures—at least for their sector—and insist on maintaining the status quo.  

The ASMFC’s Atlantic Striped Bass Management Board could well decide to heed those industry calls when it meets again in October, and opt not to reduce striped bass fishing mortality.  

And, if that happens, some folks might be pleased.

But decisions have consequences, and just as the decision to reduce landings by 12 percent might result in commercial fishermen making less money, charter boats booking fewer trips, and the tackle industry selling less merchandise, the decision NOT to reduce landings could result in fewer striped bass in the ocean, and cause longer-lasting harm to the same people who are fighting the proposed landings cuts.

Striped bass are at the forefront of the fisheries debate right now, and everyone is talking about them, but it might make more sense to leave bass alone for a while, and look at what happened in some other fisheries where managers were less than successful in averting a population crash.

Just this week, I came across an article on the Canadian Broadcasting Company website that declared,

“Plunging salmon pool prices highlight stock’s decline, anglers say.

“Most minimum bids in province’s once-a-decade Crown angling lease auction drop 40 to 75 percent.”

The gist of the article was pretty simple:  The number of Atlantic salmon returning to rivers in the Province of New Brunswick, rivers that once were among the most productive and most esteemed salmon waters in Maritime Canada--rivers like the Restigouche and Miramichi--has fallen so low that well-heeled fishermen and lodge owners are no longer willing to pay high prices to lease a section of river where they would hold exclusive fishing rights.

The New Brunswick government reportedly refused to explain why the leases had lost so much value, but only said that the minimum bids were set by an unidentified third party, and that the relevant appraisals

"considered a range of factors, including comparable private land transactions, Atlantic salmon returns, and catch statistics."

But while government spokesman might provide oblique answers, the big, underlying truth can’t be denied:  There are so few salmon left that people aren’t willing to pay as much as they once did to fish on New Brunswick’s waters.

That was the truth expressed by Bradford Burns, a guide and angler who believes that the loss of lease value tracks directly back to the fact that the rivers’ populations of Atlantic salmon have declined by 90 percent over the past 15 years.  He went on to note,

“I wouldn’t be surprised if they have great difficulty even getting bids on many of the properties.

“It isn’t like you went out and instead of catching 10 fish, you caught one fish.  It may be that you go days and days and not catch any at all, or even see any because there aren’t any there.”

Canadian fisheries managers have tried to stem the Atlantic salmon’s decline.  Last March, the Canadian government announced the nation’s

“first ever conservation strategy to restore and rebuild wild Atlantic salmon populations and their habitats.”

In doing so, Canada admitted that

“Atlantic salmon populations face many threats linked to human activity, including loss of natural habitat, decreased water quality, invasive species, legal and illegal fishing, pollution and challenges linked to climate change.”

Some of those threats, such as water quality and legal and illegal fishing, are arguably things that managers can control.  But other factors, most particularly climate change, are not.

Salmon fishermen argue that Canadian fisheries managers are overlooking another big cause of the salmon’s decline, the restoration of the striped bass population in the salmon rivers, and the resulting striped bass predation on juvenile salmon on their way out to sea, but stomach contents studies conducted by Canada’s Department of Fisheries and Oceans have failed to find significant evidence of such predation.

So, right now, New Brunswick’s Atlantic salmon are facing something that looks very much like a stock collapse.  The population seems to be in free fall, while fisheries managers strive, so far unsuccessfully, to find ways to stem the decline as the economic value of the fishery begins to tank.  

The situation is, in those respects, very similar to the striped bass stock collapse of the very late 1970s and early 1980s.  To anyone who fished for striped bass during those years, Mr. Burns’ comment that, “It may be that you go days and days and not catch any at all, or even see any because there aren’t any there,” sounds uncomfortably familiar.

But we don’t need to go to distant Canadian waters, or turn to fish as exotic and celebrated as the Atlantic salmon, to see what happens when managers fail to respond quickly enough and forcefully enough to a species’ decline.  We need only look in our local creeks, bays, and sounds, at the collapse of the humble winter flounder.

At one time, not all that long ago, the winter flounder was the bread and butter fish for inshore anglers, the party boat fleet, and northeastern tackle shops.  Although it ranged south to the Chesapeake Bay, the heart of the recreational fishery resided in waters between New Jersey and Massachusetts, where anglers, fishing from private and for-hire boats, from docks, piers, and bulkheads, and from the shore caught the little flatfish by the millions, at any time of year when the waters weren’t bound up in ice.

In 1981, Massachusetts anglers harvested approximately 16.5 million winter flounder, while New York, at 12.4 million fish landed, sat in second place.  By 1984, New York had taken over the lead, with just under 14.5 million flounder landed.  In the same year, anglers harvested about 8.5 million flounder in New Jersey, 4.8 million in Massachusetts, 2.7 million in Connecticut, and 1.6 million in Rhode Island.  By any measure, just 40 years ago, there were a lot of flounder around.

But there were also signs that the flounder population was under stress, and managers were slow to respond.  As is the case with striped bass today, winter flounder were such an important component of the recreational fishery that the industry—party boats, charter boats, and tackle dealers—fought to maintain the status quo, actively opposing any regulation that might cause their incomes to decline.

So management measures tended to be too little, too late, andlandings never declined as much as necessary; the winter flounder population declined instead.  In 1984, anglers caught flounder by the millions, but by the time 2024 rolled around, landings had collapsed along with the population.

Massachusetts still had the most landings, but at a mere 29,000, they had fallen by 99.8 percent from their 1981 peak, and by 99.4 percent from what they were in 1984.

Other states saw similar declines from their 1984 landings.  In New York, 2024 winter flounder landings were so minimal that a meaningful comparison is nearly impossible; they had fallen by 99.994 percent.  In New Jersey, landings declined by 99.98 percent, and by 99.99 percent in Connecticut and Rhode Island.

In terms of trips, that translates to Massachusetts anglers making around 2.0 million winter flounder trips in 1981 and 940,000 in 1984, but only 71,200 in 2024.  New York’s recreational winter flounder effort fell from 3.5 million trips in 1984 to 8,500 in 2024, as New Jersey’s effort went from 2.1 million trips to 40,500.  Connecticut and Rhode Island, where anglers made 920,00 and 510,00 directed winter flounder trips, respectively, in 1984, seemingly had no directed trips at all last year (although some such trips undoubtedly occurred, but were so few that they never appeared on the surveys).

As a practical matter, from a recreational standpoint, winter flounder are all but economically extinct, a victim of failed fisheries management.  

A fishery that once provided anglers with millions of pounds of valued food fish, and kicked off the fishing season well before the start of spring, is now effectively dead.

Yet the lesson of the flounder still seems lost in the fishing industry.

And so we come back to striped bass.

Striped bass is a fishery driven by abundance, which has far more to do with how often people go striped bass fishing than do restrictive regulations, a fact that is easily demonstrated by effort data from the years 1995 through 2014, a time when regulations were generally consistent at a 2-fish bag limit and 28-inch minimum size in the ocean fishery (although some states varied from 2 @ 28 inches, they didn’t change those regulations much, either), but striped bass abundance changed substantially, both up and down.

In 1995, striped bass abundance was, by definition, right at the level we now consider the biomass threshold, supporting 13.0 million striped bass trips.  Biomass peaked around 2002, at which point trips had increased to 20.8 million.  After that, biomass declined a little and then leveled off, with enough  larger fish available from the big 1989 and 1993 year classes to keep angler interest up, leading to trips peaking at 24.8 million trips in 2006 and 24.4 million trips in 2007.

But after that, striped bass abundance, and directed striped bass trips, fell into a noticeable decline.  By 2011, trips had dropped a bit, to 22.7 million, and by 2014, the last year of the consistent regulations, to 19.3 million.  Since then, bass abundance declined while regulations grew more restrictive, making any correlation harder to draw.  In 2024, with striped bass abundance down and a one-fish bag limit and 28- to 31-inch slot size limit in place, the number of directed striped bass trips had fallen to 15.4 million, nearly as few as were taken 30 years ago.

And there are indications that trips will decline again in 2025.

So, where do we go next?

In 1986, after the striped bass stock collapsed, the spawning stock biomass bottomed out.  Anglers took just  540,000 directed striped bass trips, roughly 3.5 percent of the number of trips that they took last year.  

Of course, back then, there were still plenty of winter flounder, tautog (“blackfish”) were still unregulated, the cod stocks had not yet collapsed, teen-sized bluefish were common, charter boats were still bringing home mako sharks on a regular basis, and the size limit for fluke was still 14 inches, so there was plenty to take up the slack.

We don’t have those fallbacks anymore.

So, do we urge the ASMFC’s striped bass management board to do nothing, in an effort to maintain striped bass landings--and industry profits--in the short term, knowing that by doing so, we might be greasing the skids for a future stock collapse—and knowing that, if a stock collapse occurs, the economic benefits of today’s striped bass fishery might disappear, seemingly overnight, with little to take their place?

Or do we take a more prudent road, forsaking some short-term gain, knowing that, in the end, we’re building the foundation for a striped bass fishery that is healthy, sustainable and—for those in the business—profitable in the long term?

We can look at Atlantic salmon and winter flounder, and get a pretty good idea what can happen when fishery management fails.

The big question is, are we willing to let striped bass management fail as well?

 

 

 

 

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