Thursday, October 2, 2025

HAS THE STRIPED BASS FISHERY REACHED A NEW INFLECTION POINT?

 

In 2022, the big 2015 year class of striped bass entered the 28- to 35-inch ocean slot limit, and recreational landings soared.  For that one year, driven by those recreational landings, the fishing mortality rate exceeded the fishing mortality threshold, and overfishing occurred.

Fishing effort also showed the impact of the 2015s entering the slot, rising from nearly 15.7 million trips in 2021 to slightly over 20.4 million trips in 2022.

But at the same time that was happening, something else was happening, too.  The number of striped bass caught on each trip was beginning to go down, falling from 1.95 bass per trip in 2021 to 1.62 bass per trip in 2022.  And the decline didn’t stop there.  In each subsequent year, the average number of bass caught per trip continued to fall, to 1.61 fish in 2023 and 1.33 in 2024.

There’s still a lot of 2025 to go, and we only have catch and effort data available through the end of June, but so far this year, the average number of bass caught per trip has fallen even farther, to just 0.82—less than a single fish for each trip taken.

That doesn’t mean that such a low success rate will continue throughout the year.  Over the past few seasons, we have seen bass migrating down from New England and eastern Long Island stall off western New York and northern New Jersey late in the season, providing very fast fishing that might—if it recurs again—push the success rate over the one-fish-per-trip mark for the entire season, although it’s probably unlikely that the rate will come close to equalling last year’s 1.33 bass per trip.

But the other thing that we need to think about is that the number of directed striped bass trips taken in the first six months of 2025 is also the lowest in the past five years—by far.  Trips during that six-month period peaked at 7.93 million in 2022, but by the time 2025 rolled around, they had fallen to slightly less than 4.75 million, which was a substantial reduction in angling effort.

2023 and 2024 effort in the first half of the year had declined modestly, to 6.79 and 6.34 million trips, respectively.  But the sharp drop in 2025 effort seems to signal that something new is going on, that is causing anglers to lose interest in the striped bass fishery. 

Some angling industry and “anglers’ rights” advocates will undoubtedly argue that anglers are losing interest in striped bass fishing because more restrictive regulations are making it more and more difficult for anglers to catch a legal-sized fish. 

While that may have contributed to the declining effort in 2023 and 2024, when the new, 28- to 31-inch slot size in the ocean fishery put many of the fish in the 2015 year class off-limits to catch-and-keep anglers, in 2025, the above-average 2018 year class entered the ocean slot limit in large numbers, and should have spurred increased angling activity, just as the larger 2015 year class spurred increased activity in 2022.

In making the projections needed to rebuild the stock, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s Striped Bass Technical Committee predicted that the availability of the 2018s would lead to more fishing effort, and cause 2025 recreational removals—landings and release mortality combined—to increase by 17 percent compared to 2024.

But that didn’t happen—at least not yet.  Instead, recreational effort for the first half of the year is down by 25 percent, while total catch is down even more, having fallen about 48 percent from 2024 levels.

Why?

While no one can say for sure, it is very possible that we have finally reached the point where the declining availability of striped bass is discouraging anglers from going fishing.

Although some members of the recreational fishing industry continue to deny it, striped bass are largely pursued as a sport fish, rather than merely for food.  Saltwater fisheries managers still have problems making such distinctions, and still tend to focus on yield when managing fisheries, employing the same philosophies whether managing striped bass or scup, bluefish or black sea bass.  They have yet to learn what their freshwater counterparts learned years ago--that most anglers who seek sport fish such as muskellunge or native brook trout have different attitudes and different motivations from those who target bluegills and bullheads.  Unlike marine fisheries managers, inland managers understand why it is wrong to apply the same management approaches to every species, without first considering the motivations of the anglers who pursue them.

The data is clear that striped bass are not primarily pursued for food.  The ASMFC notes on its website that

“The recreational fishery is predominantly prosecuted as catch and release, meaning the majority of striped bass caught are released alive either due to angler preference or regulation (e.g., undersized, or the angler already harvested the daily bag limit).  Since 1990, roughly 90% of the total annual striped bass catch is released alive…”

When managing a catch and release fishery, one should not manage for yield, but for abundance, as the ability to find and catch fish, rather than the ability to kill fish and bring them home, is the primary driver of angler effort.

That is illustrated by the recreational striped bass effort data for the years 1995 through 2014.  During all of that time, recreational regulations were relatively stable along the coast.  Most states adopted a two-fish bag limit and 28-inch minimum size, and even those states that did not—for example, Maine’s regulations allowed anglers to retain only one fish, that either fell within a 20- to 26-inch slot or measured over 40 inches in length—remained relatively consistent during that time, so changing regulations had no impact on angler behavior.  Yet angler effort varied during that time.

In 1995, when striped bass abundance was, by definition, right at the biomass threshold, anglers took about 13.0 million directed striped bass trips.  By the time that spawning stock biomass peaked in 2022, trips had increased to 20.8 million, although they didn’t peak, at 24.8 million, until 2006, when a combination of larger fish from 1989, 1993, and 1996, along with numerous undersized bass from the very strong 2001 year class, provided anglers with both quality bass and fast action.  But then, as the stock’s decline became more noticeable, effort declined as well, falling to 19.3 million in 2014, the last year of the coastwide 2@28 inches rule.

Now, we’ve reached the point where first-half effort has fallen well below 5 million trips.  Given that, for the years 2021-2024, directed striped bass effort through June 30 accounted for roughly 40 percent of all directed trips for they year, we should expect total directed striped bass effort to fall below 12 million trips in 2025, the lowest number of directed trips in over 30 years.

So we must ask hether the striped bass fishery has finally reached an inflection point.  

That is, have we reached the place where anglers have decided that a fishery that only sees them catch, on average, a mere eight-tenths of one striped bass per day is a fishery that they no longer want to be a part of?  

Have we gotten to the point that anglers have decided that fishing in a largely empty ocean—at least, an ocean largely empty of striped bass—in not a particularly enjoyable activity, and not an activity that they want to engage iny?

Right now, we can't answer that question with any certainty, but I strongly suspect that the answer is yes.  People whom I know—some hardcase surfcasters, others anglers old enough to have fished through the last stock collapse, the sort of diehards who refused to stop hunting unicorns throughout the early 1980s—are saying that they just aren’t bass fishing as much as they did just a few years ago.

Some have stopped fishing because the fish just aren’t there.  Others fish less often out of a sense of responsibility to the resource, feeling that if the striped bass stock is not doing well, they shouldn’t be adding to its troubles by heading out to kill fish, even if the fish that they kill are only some of the estimated 9 percent of striped bass that die after being released.

Another factor that might be coming into play is that, as striped bass become less abundant, their distribution begins to get spotty.  

The center of striped bass abundance during the summer months seems to extend from, perhaps, the East End of Long Island, New York to Cape Cod, including Cape Cod Bay.  When striped bass abundance is high, competitive pressure causes quite a few fish to spend their summers outside of that core range.  At those times, anglers are able to find a few summer holdovers on the New Jersey shore, and some wide-ranging fish up in northern Maine.  There aren’t as many fish out on the fringes as there are in the core range, but there are enough to provide a worthwhile angling experience, at least for those who know where to find the fish and how to catch them.

But when striped bass abundance declines far enough, the population contracts into the core range.  There is less competition between individuals, and so less need for fish to spread into adjacent waters.  As abundance declines further, even fishing in the core areas gets spotty, with good fishing in a few areas—maybe the Montauk rips, Block Island, the outer Cape, and/or Boston Harbor--but hit-and-(largely) miss everywhere else.

At that point, anglers who don’t live and fish near the productive areas tend to turn to other species--provided that other species are available, which is not always the case—or just stop fishing until the spring and fall migrations bring a temporary abundance of striped bass to their section of coast.  And even those spring and fall runs become shorter and less productive as the population shrinks.

2025’s sharp drop in directed striped bass trips may be the first real signs that significant numbers of anglers are leaving the fishery.

Some will doubtless leap upon the decline in effort as an excuse to maintain the status quo, and take no further action to rebuild the striped bass population.  The American Sportfishing Association—the largest recreational fishing industry trade group—has already argued that

“Additional seasonal closures are not necessary.  Strict recreational fishery management using a narrow slot limit has effectively lowered fishing mortality to a 30-year low which is well below the target and threshold needed for rebuilding,”

while Michael Waine, the American Sportfishing Association’s East Coast spokesman, called in to a recent ASMFC hearing held in New York, to speak against a 12 percent reduction in striped bass removals, arguing that the striped bass catch for the first six months of 2025 was only half what it was for the same period in 2024, and so no further reductions in landings were needed.

But maybe the ASA, along with the rest of the recreational fishing industry, ought to take a long, hard look at what they’re asking for.  For as the American Sportfishing Association has already noted,

“The recreational striped bass fishery drives billions of dollars in economic activity, supports tens of thousands of jobs, and sustains countless small businesses up and down the Atlantic coast.”

If the decline in striped bass catch is occurring not because of more stringent management measures—and management measures have now been unchanged since the spring of 2024—but rather because anglers are losing interest in a fishery where, due to declining abundance, they are often unable to catch even a single fish over the course of a trip, it’s not going to be very long before those “billions of dollars in economic activity” begin to dry up, those “tens of thousands of jobs” are put at risk, and many of those “countless small business up and down the Atlantic coast” are forced to close their doors.

If 2025 truly marks an inflection point, where many anglers are beginning to walk away from a badly deteriorating striped bass fishery, then the economic benefits of the striped bass fishery will also wane, and the very people and businesses that the American Sportfishing Association was formed to support will suffer as a result.

If 2025 truly marks an inflection point, we can expect fishing effort to continue its slide, and the businesses that the striped bass fishery to decline in harmony with the reduced number of striped bass trips.

The only remedy for the woes of striped bass-related businesses is the same remedy that will aid the striped bass itself:  Reduce fishing mortality to whatever level is needed to rebuild the stock, so that renewed abundance will convince estranged anglers to rejoin the fishery, and entice anglers who have been fishing less, due to reduced striped bass abundance, to increase their efforts in response to increased opportunities to encounter fish.

A failure to adopt such remedy is likely to push the striped bass stock into further decline, and to condemn many striped bass-dependent businesses to a slow but still avoidable death.




 

 

 

 

 

 

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