Thursday, December 26, 2024

GOOD NEWS FOR CHESAPEAKE MENHADEN

 

Amid all the gloom-and-doom reporting, good news often slips by unnoticed.  That seems to be the case with menhaden in the Chesapeake Bay.

If you read most of the articles written about Chesapeake Bay menhaden, you’d get the impression that they were in some sort of serious trouble.  For example, the Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership recently put out a press release that began

“A healthy Chesapeake Bay with abundant fishing opportunities is only possible when there are sufficient menhaden.  Menhaden are keystone species serving as a critical food source for iconic Bay sportfish like striped bass, red drum, and bluefish, as well as ospreys, marine mammals, and more.  But for far too long, the critical science needed to make informed decisions about the Chesapeake’s menhaden has been delayed due to interference from industrial fishing behemoth Omega Protein, which removes over 100 million pounds of menhaden from the Bay each year.  [emphasis in original]”

The tone of the release suggests that there were problems with the Bay’s menhaden population—if one can even say that there is such a thing as a “Chesapeake Bay population” of menhaden since, so far as I know, no one has yet quantified the movements of menhaden in and out of the Bay.  In fact, the most recent benchmark stock assessment informs us that

“Based on size-frequency information and tagging studies, the Atlantic menhaden resource is believed to consist of a single unit stock or population.  Genetic studies support the single stock hypothesis.  [emphasis added; references omitted]”

Given that statement, it is probably incorrect to refer to a “Chesapeake Bay population” of menhaden at all.

Based on current knowledge, it is also impossible to say whether the menhaden found in the Chesapeake at any given time are fish that enter early in the year, remain there until chased out by winter’s cold, and are not replenished in any significant numbers during the season, or whether there is a regular interchange of fish between the ocean and Bay, and regular replenishment of the “Bay population” throughout the season.  There has often been concerns with “localized depletion” of Bay menhaden, but Amendment 3 to the Interstate Fishery Management Plan for Atlantic Menhaden, citing a 2009 stock assessment, notes that

“given the high mobility of of menhaden, the potential for localized depletion could only occur on a ‘relatively small scale for a relatively short time.’”

While it’s true that a lot more scientific information is needed to clear up such questions, and the the Virginia legislature has unfortunately delayed funding for studies that might help scientists find needed answers, it is also true that the ominous tone of the TRCP release, and most other public comments on menhaden, unnecessarily—and undoubtedly intentionally—skews public opinion in an unjustifiably negative direction.

Such skewed public opinion was readily apparent in the comments made by some stakeholders ahead of the December 16 meeting of the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s Atlantic Striped Bass Management Board.  While the problems facing the striped bass stock are well known—it experienced overfishing for many years prior to 2020, and because of unfavorable environmental conditions, most notably a lack of cold winters and cool, wet springs, has experienced very poor spawning success over the past six years—too many commentors ignored those issues and placed the blame for low striped bass abundance on an imagined shortage of menhaden in the Chesapeake Bay. 

Thus, we saw comments such as

“[Problems] in the Chesapeake Bay causing lower spawn rates [include]…allowing omega [sic] boats to fish inside the bay.  The bass will still migrate south to there [sic] spawning grounds but when it comes to spawning time they don’t have enough bunker to feed on to nourish their eggs for viable spawning,”

“As your own scientists have pointed out, striped bass are the most sensitive fish to declines in menhaden.  I urge you to consider menhaden reduction harvest as a likely contributing factor in the decline of striped bass,”

and

“Stop all harvesting of Atlantic menhaden…Now bigger picture.  Entire bays being harvested for menhaden no fish will push in and if there’s no food for their offspring why would they breed.  [sic]  These fish are not dumb they have been around a long time because of their survival skills.  STOP the commercial harvest of MENHADEN.  It is being used for completely unnecessary products and the ecosystem all up and down the coast.”

Such comments were made regardless of the fact that there is no data supporting the claims that there are insufficient menhaden to support the striped bass population.  The health of the menhaden stock is measured by the use of ecological reference points that are tied directly to the needs of the striped bass.  The target fishing mortality rate for Atlantic menhaden is defined as

“the maximum fishing mortality rate (F) on Atlantic menhaden that sustains Atlantic striped bass at their biomass target when striped bass are fished at their F target,”

while the fecundity target, which is used in lieu of a biomass target, is

“the long-term equilibrium fecundity that results when the population is fished at the [ecological reference point] F target.”

And since the most recent stock assessment update, completed in 2022, found that

“The fishing mortality rate for the terminal year of 2021 was below the [ecological reference point] target and threshold and the fecundity was above the [ecological reference point] target and threshold,”

any claims that the current overfished state of the striped bass stock is due to a shortage of menhaden lacks all credibility.

Some might try to argue that the stock assessment only looks at coastwide abundance, and so does not reflect the abundance of menhaden in the Chesapeake Bay.  However, such arguments overlook one critical fact:  For the last two years, the Chesapeake Bay has been flooded with juvenile menhaden.

Those fish have been documented in Maryland’s juvenile abundance survey.  In 2023, the survey found that

“Menhaden abundance was the highest measured in over 30 years.”

In 2024, the Maryland Department of Natural Resources announced that

“Menhaden abundance was nearly equal to last year, which was the highest measured since 1990.”

While those surveys were only conducted in the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay, the benchmark stock assessment also informs us that

“There have been several studies examining Atlantic menhaden migration patterns.  Adults begin migrating inshore and north in early spring following the end of the major spawning season off the Carolinas during December-February.”

Based on that information, it is reasonable to believe that an equal number of menhaden enter the Virginia portion of the Chesapeake Bay during the spring inshore migration, and that if there is any additional inflow of menhaden from the ocean later in the year, such fish would also venture into Virginia waters.

Yet, for some reason, there is little or no effort made to get the good news about Chesapeake menhaden out to the public.  The Maryland Department of Natural Resources reported its findings of high menhaden abundance in a single sentence buried in a press release focusing on striped bass, and few other outlets picked up the story.

After scientists at Virginia’s College of William and Mary found that osprey nesting success in one local bay had declined in recent years, and blamed that decline on a shortage of menhaden in the Chesapeake Bay, the story was widely covered in the mainstream press, including a comprehensive feature published in The New York Times.  Yet when another team of biologists from the Virginia Institute of Marine Science criticized that study, questioning the data and statistical methods that led to is conclusion that commercial menhaden fishing within the Chesapeake Bay was the cause of the ospreys’ nesting woes, and ultimately questioning that conclusion itself, writing,

“while we share concerns about the demographic and foraging trends of osprey in Mobjack Bay, the analysis presented in [the original study] do not establish a clear relationship with menhaden abundance and availability,”

their findings were reported in some local news outlets, but never attained the national attention that the original study received. 

It’s almost as if everyone knows that bad news about menhaden sells better, particularly to big foundations that provide the grants used to pay the salaries of consultants who lead the attacks on the menhaden industry, and to the donors that help keep various advocacy organizations, big and small, alive, while good menhaden news might result in those funds being redirected elsewhere.  Yet, as Dr. Robert Latour noted after issuing his criticism of the original study,

“It may turn out that the linkage is real, and I’m certainly willing to admit that, but right now I just don’t feel like we can say that…There was so much pressure being put on industry and policymakers to make decisions, and the scientific basis for doing that was not very solid at all.  So the point of the commentary was to give an alternative perspective.”

And that alternative perspective is certainly needed, because fisheries management decisions ought to be based on facts, not on emotions generated by a distorted view of the truth.  When those facts are absent, it’s incumbent on fisheries managers to go out and find them; it’s easy to argue that Virginia’s failure to finance comprehensive menhaden research was a shortsighted and potentially costly mistake.

But when information is available, it is incumbent upon researchers and advocates, as well as the press, to put as much emphasis on the good news and they put on the bad.  To do anything less brings their credibility into question.

The news out of Maryland, which found the greatest menhaden abundance in over 30 years, was certainly good, yet it was scarcely reported by any of the outlets or organizations that are quick to trumpet bad news regarding the species.

We can only suspect why such pervasive silence prevailed.

No comments:

Post a Comment