We can learn a lot about managing today’s fisheries by
looking back at how yesterday’s fisheries died.
The first thing we need to understand is that no one—at any
time—set out to kill off a fishery.
Instead, fishermen merely plied their trade, trying to support
themselves and their families by doing what they did every day—going out,
catching fish, and bringing them back to the dock, usually to sell, but also
for their own consumption.
Those fishermen were out on the water every day, and
certainly noticed changes in their fisheries.
Maybe the biggest fish that they caught were no longer as large as they once
were. Maybe the fish were arriving a
little later in the year, and leaving a little sooner. Maybe they were having to travel farther to
find fish consistently, as some of the traditional close-to-home spots became
only spotty producers.
But they shrugged off those changes, telling themselves that
fish come and fish go, and did what they needed to do to keep putting fish on
the dock. The one thing that they didn’t
do, and probably never considered, was intentionally reducing their landings to
preserve declining fish stocks. They
were fishermen, after all. Their job was
to catch fish, bring them back to the dock, and turn them into money that would
keep their families housed, clothed, and fed.
But in the long run, reducing landings was the most important
thing that they could have done.
“Like concentric circles moving away from Massachusetts’
North Shore, successive localized depletions progressed into the regional depletion
of Atlantic halibut. Fishermen in
Massachusetts Bay, the area that had sustained fishing pressure longest, first
observed the decline. From the earliest
colonial records, halibut were plentiful close to the shore, and two centuries
later, Goode still claimed halibut were ‘very abundant’ in Massachusetts Bay,
especially ‘before 1830, [when] those who wished to catch halibut had no
difficulty in finding an abundant supply within a few miles of shore.” However, the fish, Goode reported, ‘were
gradually exterminated in the bay.’ When
inshore halibut became scarce, the industry concentrated its efforts on the
substantial halibut stocks on the offshore banks, especially Georges Bank,
during the 1840s, 1850s, and 1860s. This
camouflaged the degree of resource degradation: it was easy to ignore halibut’s
decline in coastal waters because the bulk of the industry now focused on the
plentiful stocks offshore. In less than
a generation, intense commercial demand and unrelenting fishing pressure
destroyed the Massachusetts Bay inshore fishery by the 1850s.’
“Fishermen sought halibut close to shore whenever possible
and coastal areas continued to suffer fishing pressure…The crumbling
Massachusetts Bay fishery and the viable Gulf of St. Lawrence fishery illustrate
how, depending on geography, dearth and plenty could exist simultaneously. However, inshore fishing still targeted both
breeders and brood, and the lessons of the Massachusetts Bay fishery were not
learned by those fishing in the Gulf of St. Lawrence…
“Although the industry’s solution to inshore decline was to
head offshore, the plentiful halibut found on Georges Bank throughout the 1850s
were disappearing by the late 1860s. The
Civil War created greater demand and pushed up prices, which in turn led to
increased pursuit of halibut…Once the premier halibut fishing ground, Georges
Bank was fished out by 1870. Trawling,
wartime demand, and consumer taste resulted in the halibut’s depletion in a
locale once crowded with fish.”
Then, as is too often the case today, fishermen focused
solely on the money to be made by putting dead halibut on the dock, and ignored
warning signs that the fishery was in deep decline. Even when they acknowledged that the halibut
stock was not doing well, fishermen in the 1800s, just like fishermen today,
made excuses and took no responsibility for the stock becoming depleted.
“Nature, rather than overfishing, was blamed for the
halibut’s disappearance. Contemporary
commentators for popular audiences saw migration: ‘The seaward movement of the
Halibut has been noted by American fishermen,’
National Geographic magazine retrospectively reported in
1923. ‘When the taking of halibut first
began, it was most abundant on Georges Bank.
Later, it gradually disappeared from the banks and went farther out to
sea…”
Today, Grasso tells us,
“Halibut remain in the northwest Atlantic today, both
near-shore and further out to sea.
However, it is clear that by the early twenty-first century, stocks are
mere shadows of their original populations, even though no precise numerical
baseline exists for early halibut stocks.
The virtual eradication of Atlantic halibut came in part because
nineteenth-century fishermen failed to develop a cogent institutional memory. Halibut fishermen in the 1920s and 1930s
looked at smaller fish, taken in lesser quantities, yet still believed that
they were landing good fares…”
Such time-limited outlooks,
which have since been dubbed “the shifting baselines syndrome,” still
plague many, perhaps most, of our fisheries.
However, the greatest lesson that striped bass managers, as well as
striped bass fishermen, should take away from the Atlantic halibut debacle
isn’t the shifting baselines, but the fishermen’s laser focus on putting fish
on the dock, as they ignored signs that the halibut were in serious trouble.
That’s because the striped bass fishery is seeing similar attitiudes
today, although they are being expressed by the for-hire fleet, and not the
commercial sector.
Like Atlantic halibut around 1840, striped bass are still
reasonably abundant, with some year classes of fish abundant enough to be
deemed “plentiful.” Today’s fishermen
have a gauge of stock health that wasn’t available in the mid-1800s—detailed
stock assessments built on the best available scientific information, which are
subject to peer review by recognized, disinterested experts before being
released and used for management work.
The problem is that fishermen too often ignore them.
The
current stock assessment, completed in 2018, told us that, as of the end of
2017, striped bass were both overfished and subject to overfishing. An update
to that assessment, released in October 2022, revealed that the overfishing
problem has been resolved, but that the stock remains overfished, although it
is rebuilding slowly. A report appended
to the update provided the unsettling news that, because recreational striped
bass landings doubled in 2022, the overfished stock is unlikely to fully
rebuild by 2029 if management measures remained unchanged.
In addition, data
released by the State of Maryland shows that recruitment in the Maryland
section of the Chesapeake Bay—the most important spawning area for the coastal
striped bass stock—was far below average for the years 2019-2022, creating
another obstacle to rebuilding.
So both fishermen and fishery managers know—or, at least
ought to know—that the striped bass stock is facing serious problems, and that
fishing mortality must be reduced to restore the stock to health.
Despite such knowledge, the emergency measures have been
strenuously opposed by most members of the for-hire fleet, who view the narrow
slot limit as a threat to their income.
Like the halibut fishermen of the mid-1800s, they see the striped bass
as nothing more than a fish to be killed and transformed into money, regardless
of the state of the stock. An
on-line petition recently crafted by the Montauk Boatmen and Captains
Association, although specific to that organization, sets out a position
that is more-or-less the same for all of the objecting for-hires.
The petition quickly informs the reader that striped bass
are important to the for-hire fishery, noting that
“one of Montauk’s most popular fisheries is striped
bass. In fact, more than 75% of our
charter boat fleet focuses the bulk of their season on striped bass
fishing…Striped bass fishing is truly the ‘bread and butter’ for most of our
for-hire fleet.”
Logically, such dependence should cause the for-hire fleet
to advocate for the sort of striped bass management that would ensure the long-term
health of the stock. For-hire operators
ought to realize that if the striped bass stock collapses, their businesses
won’t be far behind. They ought to be
celebrating the emergency measures as a first step on the road to rebuilding
the stock.
But, as I noted before, that’s not the case. Despite the very clear science supporting the
emergency action, the Montauk petition deems such action to be “drastic,
unreasonable, and unnecessary,” as well as “preposterous,” although it never
even tries to explain how or why the science underlying such action is wrong.
Instead, the entire thrust of the Montauk Boatmen’s petition
was one that nineteenth century halibut fishermen would have readily
understood: We’re fishermen, and we make
our living catching, and keeping, striped bass.
We don’t like the emergency action because it might cut into our incomes.
The petition claims,
“The emergency action will have a direct adverse impact on
our for-hire fleet. Our customers expect
to take fish home after paying a charter or party boat fare. With the rising prices of fuel, bait, tackle
and insurance, our captains have had no choice but to raise their rates. From our customers’ perspectives, the
increase in rates is oftentimes offset by the ability to put fish in their
coolers to bring home to their families.
Particularly in light of rising costs for basic groceries, this
trade-off is essential. If our customers
are unable to bring fish home, they will be less inclined to book a fishing
trip. This, in turn, also hurts our
local businesses, including hotels, restaurants and shops, all of which rely on
Montauk’s visitors to thrive.”
Let’s begin by acknowledging that, yes, a lot of folks who
book Montauk charters look forward to bringing a few fish home. And many of those folks enjoy eating striped
bass, and might be disappointed if they couldn’t put a bass in the fish box. So yes, the emergency action might cause
fewer folks to book charters although, on the other hand, nothing stops a boat
from targeting abundant scup or black sea bass, tossing a bunch of them in
customers’ coolers and then, the grocery bill having been addressed, targeting
striped bass as well.
In fact, many boats offer exactly that sort of multi-species
trip to their customers, although whether they fish for bass first or later
often depends on the stage of the tide.
We should also acknowledge that the average striped bass
spawned in 2015, which made up most of the fish in the old 28- to 35-inch slot,
measures 31.6 inches long this year, which is right in the middle of the former
slot limit. Since most of the 2015s will
measure either above or below that mark, perhaps by a few inches, rather than
being exactly 31.6 inches long, there is still close to a 50% chance that any
2015 caught will still fall within the narrower 28- to 31-inch slot; the odds
of bringing a legal bass home from Montauk remains very good.
But for the purpose of argument, let’s assume that some
customers will be discouraged from booking trips by the new emergency
measures. At that point, we need to
think about comparative evils, something that the Montauk Boatmen completely
failed to do.
If they, like the nineteenth century Atlantic halibut
fishermen, ignore the signs of a declining stock, and convince managers to
allow them to fish at 2022 levels, it is nearly inevitable that, in a few years,
the effects of poor recruitment in Maryland will make themselves felt. In 2026, fairly large numbers of bass from the
very small 2019 year class will exceed 28 inches, and begin to enter the
slot. Even if the slot remained at 28 to
35 inches, that will sharply reduce the number of bass that anglers might take
home.
In 2027, the 2019s will be the same size as the 2015s are
today, and will dominate the slot.
Except, because the 2019 year class is so very small, “dominate” somehow
feels like the wrong word; the slot will hold very few fish. And because the 2020, 2021, and 2022 year
classes (and probably the 2023, although we won’t know that for sure until
October) are also very small, there will be no relief on the horizon.
By 2029, the rebuilding deadline that the ASMFC is trying to
meet, the striped bass age structure is going to be very lopsided, with few
bass between 26 and 36 inches available to anglers. That lack of fish will render arguments about
the top end of the slot moot; whether the maximum size is 31 or 35 inches,
there won’t be many fish in the slot to catch, much less to take
home.
So here’s where the lesser of two evils comes in.
Are the for-hire boats—at least those which plan to be in
business five years from now—better off if the ASMFC places real restrictions
on landings, perhaps coupling a 28- to 31-inch slot with no-harvest
seasons, so that the stock continues to rebuild, and leaves enough bass in the
water for anglers to catch, even if they can’t take them home?
Or are they better off if managers heed their petition,
return management measures to 2022 levels, and allow the spawning stock to
decline, so that by 2029, there are few 28- to 35-inch slot fish in the
ocean? In that case, if an angler
caught a bass between 31 and 35 inches, they could still take it home, but because
slot-sized fish would be so scarce, the odds of catching a bass of that size would
be substantially reduced.
Folks who were around in the early 1980s would remember what
that’s like, although few of the people who fished back then bothered to target
striped bass; in 1982, fewer than 2% of all saltwater fishing trips taken in
New York focused on the species, as there were so few bass around. Given that, if striped bass abundance fell
back to 1982 levels—or even stayed a bit above—those Montauk charter boats who fish
for bass 75% of the time might end up spending most of their time at the dock.
Of course, that’s all five or six years in the future, and
if the Atlantic halibut’s story teaches us anything, it’s that fishermen rarely
look that far ahead. Their job, at least
as they see it, is to catch fish NOW, and worry about the future
on some later day.
And by the time that they finally get around to worrying, it’s
far to late for that worrying to do any good.
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