GULF RED SNAPPER: COULD THERE BE A DECLINE?

 

Recreational red snapper management in the Gulf of Mexico has displayed the hallmarks of an incipient success.

Current abundance is far higher than it was in 1990, when the spawning potential ratio of the stock—a measure that compares the current spawning potential to that of an unfished population—was a mere 2%, far below the 26% management target that denotes a sustainable fishery.

The most recent stock assessment, completed in 2018, found that the Gulf of Mexico red snapper stock was neither overfished nor experiencing overfishing, although it also noted that

“An important caveat in this result is that under the previous definition of [Minimum Stock Size Threshold] the red snapper resource would still be considered overfished,”

a reference to an action taken by the Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council in Amendment 44 to the Fishery Management Plan for the Reef Fish Resources of the Gulf of Mexico which, in effect, moved the goal posts used to define an overfished stock, lowering the minimum stock size threshold for red snapper.  Thanks to Amendment 44, the Gulf red snapper stock went from “overfished” to “rebuilding,” but not overfished with a stroke of a pen, without any increase in red snapper abundance.

A fishery impact statement included in Amendment 44 noted that

“red snapper…would be reclassified from overfished to not overfished but rebuilding.  Despite the reclassification, the rebuilding [plan]…would remain in place until the [stock has] recovered to [its target level].

The fishery impact statement also noted that Amendment 44

“would afford more flexibility to manage the stocks by providing a wider buffer between [the minimum stock size threshold] and the biomass at [maximum sustainable yield].  Therefore, [Amendment 44] would be expected to result in indirect positive economic effects stemming from additional harvesting opportunities that could be made available by the increased management flexibility.  The magnitude of these potential indirect economic benefits would be determined by the additional harvests afforded to recreational and commercial fishermen…”

Amendment 44 was followed by Amendment 50 to the Fishery Management Plan for the Reef Fish Resources of the Gulf of Mexico, which allocated the recreational red snapper quota among the five Gulf states, and allowed those states to adopt state-specific seasons and, within very limited parameters, state-specific size and bag limits, designed to constrain recreational landings to each state’s quota, while better accommodating the particular features of each state’s private boat red snapper fishery.

The big recreational fishing organizations were extremely pleased by the adoption of Amendment 50, with Jeff Angers, president of the Center for Sportfishing Policy, gushing that

“We have reason to celebrate today thanks to the willingness of the state fish and wildlife agencies on the Gulf Coast and the leadership of Secretary Ross and congressional champions like Senator Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) and Representative Garret Graves (R-La.), Steve Scalise (R-La.), and Austin Scott (R-Ga.).  Over the past two years, private recreational and red snapper anglers in the Gulf have become more active partners in the states’ data collection systems and enjoyed much longer red snapper seasons than the federal system was able to provide.”

The recreational spokesmen found even more reason to rejoice when “The Great Red Snapper Count,” a congressionally-funded study designed to estimate the absolute number of red snapper in the United States’ portion of the Gulf of Mexico, revealed that red snapper abundance was about triple the previous estimate, with the increase attributable primarily to snapper found on low-relief bottom that had not been previously surveyed for red snapper, which have long been associated with high-relief bottom structure.

Louisiana Congressman Garret Graves, who has long supported the Center for Sportfishing Policy and its affiliated organizations, said

“There is no doubt this is going to change the entire game in how the fishery is assessed by the federal and state officials.  We’ve made it a point to fully equip the Gulf States with more science and independent data to improve the management of this species so we don’t lose ground on the success we’ve made on conservation efforts…

“Years of working towards these wins will pay off for our conservation efforts, get anglers some more time on the water, and more red snapper in the ice chest for good eating.  I appreciate all of the help and hard work of the Coastal Conservation Association, American Sportfish Association, Center for Sportfishing Policy, [Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership] and all the anglers out there that are the true conservationists that want to assure fishing opportunities for generations to come.  We’ve created a foundation for successful state management of the species through our previous legislation and the results are reflective of the progress we have made.”

If only life were that easy.

It turns out that Amendment 50 wasn’t the panacea that the sportfishing advocates had hoped.  That was largely because the states each used their own approach to estimating recreational landings.  Such approaches provided far more timely estimates than the federal Marine Recreational Information Program but, because they used slightly different methodologies, the data that each state generated wasn’t compatible with the data generated by other states, or by the MRIP surveys.  It would be necessary to calibrate each state’s estimates into a “common currency” that would be compatible with data provided by other states and by MRIP, before the state estimates could be used effectively in the management process.

That wasn’t a surprising outcome.  Fishery managers had understood that reality from the very beginning of the Amendment 50 discussions.

But anglers in Alabama and Mississippi were certainly surprised when they learned that, because of such calibration issues, they had badly overfished their state allocations, and would be facing very substantial cutbacks in upcoming seasons.  

Since, as Rep. Graves noted, the entire point of Amendment 50 and the Great Red Snapper Count was to find ways to give anglers “some more time on the water, and more red snapper in the ice chest for good eating,” the idea of any cutbacks at all, not to mention substantial ones, didn’t go over well.

Suddenly, the same Center for Sportfishing Policy that initially deemed the adoption of Amendment 50 “reason to celebrate” was having second thoughts, at least about the way that federal measure—and we should always remember that Amendment 50 is a federal measure that allows some state input, and not a transition to state red snapper management—has been implemented.  Thus, it complained in The Fishing Wire that

“Just two years after approving a plan to allow the Gulf states to develop their own recreational data collection systems to better manage red snapper and certifying those state programs, NOAA Fisheries intends to force the states to calibrate their data back to the flawed federal data system that caused significant turmoil in the first place.  The federal data system, Marine Recreational Information Program (MRIP), has been widely criticized by many in the recreational fishing community, the states and in Congress, and its limitations are what led to each of the states to develop their own data collection systems.”

The debate over calibration has not yet been settled, although it appears that the National Marine Fisheries Service may finally adopt a calibration system in time for the 2023 season.  However, given the current estimates showing severe recreational overharvest in Alabama and Mississippi in previous years, and almost certainly in this one, it's worth asking whether such overharvest has already impacted the red snapper recovery.

The various sportfishing advocacy groups appear to be relying on the results of the Great Red Snapper Count to bail them out from the consequences of recreational overharvest.  However, the Count only found that there are more red snapper in the Gulf than previously believed.  It doesn’t mean that significantly higher landings levels are permissible, for it’s difficult to predict the impact of one piece of data on a stock assessment, and the results can sometimes be very counterintuitive.  The implications of the Count’s findings on estimates of red snapper productivity, the biomass that will achieve maximum sustainable yield, and perhaps the acceptable level of harvest will remain unknown until a formal stock assessment, which is nearing completion, puts it all into context. 

But right now, there are indications that everything isn’t as rosy as the sportfishing advocates assume.

For the last couple of years, a few of the Gulf charter boat captains who I know have been saying that it is becoming necessary to run farther and farther from port to put their clients on quality red snapper.  While there are a lot of fish on the inshore reefs, they tell me, once the season begins the number and size of those fish quickly decline.  One captain in the eastern Gulf recently wrote

“It’s actually comical that we can actually almost pinpoint the collapse of the red snapper off Alabama.  In 2021, the first 6 days of the private rec season, anglers caught over 465,000 lbs.  It took another 118 days of red snapper season to catch the remainder of the quota.  This year fuel prices were higher but we had very few bad weather days to keep private recs off the water.  State says high price of fuel is reason for extending the season [because private boat anglers haven’t yet come close to catching their quota].  I don’t know many people with $200-800,000 boats that would allow a little fuel to keep them off the water.

“My private recreational friends who fish a lot said they are having a hard time finding any keeper fish on any of their privately built reefs they built in waters out to 45 miles offshore…No surprise there.”

Those are only one person’s observations, made in only one relatively small part of the Gulf.  However, there seems to be corroborating evidence coming out of the western Gulf, too.

This week, the The Daily News of Galveston County [Texas] carried an opinion piece authored by Buddy Guindon, a local commercial fisherman who is very tuned in and understands the intricacies of the fishery management system (it is no coincidence that two successful lawsuits challenging the National Marine Fisheries Service’s misguided recreational red snapper actions are both captioned “Guindon v. Pritzker”).  In that piece, Mr. Guindon notes,

“If you had asked me five years ago if I was worried about red snapper populations in Texas, I would have said ‘no.’

“But I’m not that optimistic today.  Fishery managers have gotten complacent, forgotten where we came from and have put self-interests above conservation and sustainability.

“Our fish stocks are in decline, our commercial fishing voices are being squashed and our fishery managers are playing politics with our livelihoods…

“We expect fishery managers to hold fishermen to their sustainable, science-based limits.  What do we have instead?  Private recreational anglers have voluntary surveys and regularly exceed their quotas, while commercial fishermen have mandatory reporting, mandatory permitting, vessel-monitoring systems and don’t exceed our quotas.

“Now this biased [Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management] Council is pushing to increase the red snapper quota at a time when commercial fishermen, charter fishermen and scientists all over the Gulf are sounding the alarm that the red snapper stock is starting to decline.

“I know what a declining fish stock looks like—I fished hard during the derby days before we developed the individual fishing quota program.  We’re there.”

Again, that is one man’s opinion, even if it comes from someone with vast experience fishing in the Gulf.

But it is one opinion that piles on top of other opinions, and suggests that something may not be right in the Gulf red snapper fishery.

Very soon, a stock assessment will definitively reveal the health of the Gulf’s red snapper stock, and we can stop speculating about the subject.  But even if the assessment’s findings are favorable, here’s something to think about.

There is often a big difference between “abundance” and “catchability.”  

Sometimes, oceanographic conditions converge to create areas of local abundance, even when the overall health of a stock is poor.  Similarly, a stock may be at sustainable levels, but concentrated in places that make it almost impossible for anglers to access (in the northeast, a perfect example of that is whiting (silver hake); the inshore fisheries that we enjoyed through the 1970s collapsed long ago, but the population remains at sustainable levels far offshore, and overall is deemed to be in good shape).

So even if the Gulf red snapper stock is deemed to be relatively healthy, if not completely rebuilt, if most of the fish are scattered over low-profile bottom throughout the Gulf, and relatively few are found on the high-structure pieces that anglers frequent, at least one the season is a week or two old, is the current recreational fishery really sustainable?

Right now, that’s just a hypothetical question.

But given the warnings that we’re hearing, it might not be hypothetical for very long.