GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS FOR STRIPED BASS AT ASMFC

The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s Atlantic Striped Bass Management Board met in New York City last Tuesday, and the top item on its agenda was to provide some sort of comment to the National Marine Fisheries Service on its Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to open the so-called Block Island Transit Zone, to striped bass fishing.

The Transit Zone is a section of federal waters that lies between  Block Island and the mainland of New York, Connecticut and New Jersey, which like all federal waters is currently closed to striped bass fishing, although boats transiting between Block Island and the mainland are permitted to possess striped bass so long as they don’t stop in federal waters to fish.

I’ve recently written about opening up the Transit Zone and the problems that would cause, and won’t rehash those issues here.  What’s matters now is that when Congress directed the National Marine Fisheries Service to consider opening the Transit Zone to striped bass fishing, it said

“NOAA, in conjunction with the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, is directed to consider lifting the ban on striped bass fishing in the Federal Block Island Transit Zone.  [emphasis added]”

hile NMFS ultimately has the final say on whether the EEZ will be opened, the use of the phrase “in conjunction with” makes it clear that Congress intended NMFS to give substantial weight to ASMFC’s advice.

Thus, striped bass fishermen had good reason to be concerned with ASMFC’s actions last Tuesday.  If its Atlantic Striped Bass Management Board recommended that the Transit Zone be opened, NMFS would almost certainly point to such recommendation as justification if it eventually allowed striped bass fishing in that part of the Exclusive Economic Zone.

There was a lot of speculation about what would happen.  

The news that Congressman Lee Zeldin (R-New York), who has been relentless in his efforts to open the Transit Zone to striped bass harvest, had sent letters to every member of the Management Board caused more than a little unease.  So when Management Board Chairman Mike Armstrong (State fisheries manager—MA) opened the meeting, anglers in the audience were sitting a little closer to the edges of their seats, waiting to see what went on.

Derek Orner, representing NMFS, provided the Management Board with background information on the proposed federal action.  And then it was the Management Board’s turn.

G. Ritchie White (Governor’s Appointee—NH) was the first commissioner to speak.  He reminded everyone that a benchmark assessment was being prepared, and voiced his opinion that it would be unwise to take any action that might impact the striped bass population before the results of such assessment were known.  David Borden (Governor’s Appointee—RI) and Tom Fote (Governor’s Appointee—NJ) spoke next, and both of them essentially echoed Commissioner White’s words.

There was no dissent at all.

Commissioner Fote noted that opening one small section of federal waters to striped bass fishing would “open Pandora’s Box,” and inspire other people to seek to open other parts of the EEZ.  He reminded everyone that

“we’ve used the EEZ as a sanctuary for big fish,”

and that opening the EEZ would put those large females, so important to the future of the striped bass resource, at risk.

Another member of the Management Board (I couldn’t tell who it was from where I was sitting) expressed his view that delaying any action on opening the Transit Zone was justified merely by the fact that some unethical for-hire and private boat anglers are currently poaching big striped bass there; he argued that opening the Transit Zone to striped bass fishing would merely be “legitimizing bad behavior.”

Michael Luisi (State fishery manager—MD) expressed his belief that NMFS’ “timing is terrible,” because it issued the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking while the new benchmark stock assessment was being prepared.  Dennis Abbott (Proxy for the Legislative Appointee—NH) asked NMFS’ representative Orner why the Transit Zone opening was being proposed now, even though NMFS is going to be looking at the broader issue of allowing striped bass fishing in the entire EEZ once the stock assessment is completed.

Orner’s answer, that there’s

“a push to look at it now,”

clearly implies that Rep. Zeldin is recklessly rushing forward with his attempt to open up the Transit Zone, without giving due regard for such action’s effect on the resource.

In the end, ASMFC’s Atlantic Striped Bass Management Board was unanimous in its decision to recommend that NMFS suspend any action on opening the Transit Zone to striped bass fishing until the benchmark assessment was completed and reviewed by the Management Board members, and they had an opportunity to formally respond to its findings at ASMFC’s Winter Meeting next February.

NMFS could still ignore such advice, and move ahead to open the Transit Zone to striped bass fishing.  However, if it did so, it would clearly not be complying with the federal injunction to consider any such action “in conjunction with” ASMFC.

That’s the extent of the good news.

The bad news is that even if ASMFC wins the point, and NMFS suspends any action to open the Transit Zone until February, there is a much bigger battle looming on the horizon.  The same ominibus budget bill that included the language about opening up the Transit Zone contained another, much broader instruction that read

“The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission is completing a new stock assessment of Atlantic Striped Bass in 2018.  After this assessment is complete, the Secretary of Commerce is directed to use this assessment to review the Federal moratorium on Atlantic Striped Bass.”

At that point, the entire range of the coastal migratory stock of striped bass, and not merely the Transit Zone, will be in play.  Should the entire EEZ be opened, striped bass will have no sanctuary from New York and New England fishermen as they spend their summer on northern feeding grounds.  And if the EEZ is opened, all of the big, fecund female bass that spend the winter in federal waters off Virginia and North Carolina before ascending their spawning rivers in the spring will be vulnerable to harvest.

Although those striped bass would be caught in federal waters, such harvest would be governed solely by the states through ASMFC, so there would be no annual catch limit to restrict the number of big females landed.  Yes, there is a “soft” fishing mortality target in the fishery management plan, but unless a new stock assessment, or perhaps a stock assessment update, is conducted to determine just what the actual fishing mortality was, overfishing could continue for years before it was detected.

Once it was finally detected, ASMFC probably wouldn’t act quickly to bring it under control.  The last benchmark stock assessment, completed in 2013, provided a snapshot of the health of the striped bass stock at the end of 2012.  It found that overfishing was occurring on a fairly regular basis and called for a 25% reduction in fishing mortality, but such reduction wasn’t put into effect until the 2015 season, a two-year lag. 

It’s not hard to imagine the number of big female bass that could be killed in the EEZ over the course of two years.

Which brings us to the last bit of bad news.

The effort to open the EEZ to striped bass fishing has real momentum.  About the only thing that is likely to stop it is a stock assessment showing problems with the health of the stock. Unfortunately, there have been some suggestions that such problems may be out there.

I haven’t heard anything definite yet.

But when Commissioner White first suggested that any action on the Transit Zone proposal be suspended until after the benchmark assessment was released, he made a comment, in passing, that from what he had heard, the assessment might reveal some problems with the stock.  A few other commissioners made similar comments; none were definitive, none speculated on the nature or extent of the problems, and none stated with any certainty that the problems existed at all.

But as I listened to comments made by various people, I got the impression that such problems were probably there.

Thus, the message from Tuesday’s meeting was mixed.

The Management Board did all that responsible anglers could reasonably expect—it asked NMFS to suspend action on the Transit Zone issue until the stock assessment was done, and everyone had enough data to guide the decision. 

Such delay would effectively lump the Transit Zone opening in with the larger question of opening the entire EEZ, an opening that might only be stopped if the stock assessment is bad enough to make it clearly imprudent.  It is possible, but far from certain, that the new assessment will convey that level of pessimism.

Thus, it might appear that the striped bass will lose no matter what happens, but I’d argue that isn’t quite true.

If the EEZ is opened, not just off Block Island, but everywhere, it’s likely—I’m tempted to say 100% likely, although that may be an overstatement—that the stock will be overfished and that far too many of the largest, most fecund females will be removed from the spawning stock.

If that happens, the bass will certainly lose.

On the other hand, if the stock assessment is pessimistic enough to halt the opening, at least we’ll know what has to be done.  The only question is whether the Management Board will have the collective will to restore the bass stock to health.

From what I saw last Tuesday, not just at the striped bass meeting, but earlier in the day, I hope and believe that they will.