STRIPED BASS: HOW DID THE 28- TO 31-INCH SLOT LIMIT REALLY AFFECT THE FOR-HIRE FLEET?

Addendum II to Amendment 7 to the Interstate Fishery Management Plan for Atlantic Striped Bass has been finalized.  Included among its provisions was a 28- to 31-inch slot size limit for anglers participating in the ocean recreational fishery.

That slot limit did not originate with Addendum II; instead, the new addendum effectively ratified the emergency action taken by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s Atlantic Striped Bass Management Board last May, after recreational landings spiked in 2022.

While most dedicated striped bass anglers appeared to be happy with the emergency action, it received a hostile reaction from much of the for-hire fleet, which seemed to believe that the narrow slot would cut deeply into their profits.  The for-hires’ position was exemplified in a petition drive initiated by the Montauk Boatmens’ and Captains’ Association, which wrote

“Recently, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) took drastic, unreasonable, and unnecessary measures to pass an emergency action that reduces the maximum size of an allowable striped bass from 35” to 31”.  Many anglers will recall the days when customers who paid a premium to fish on board a charter or head boat had the privilege of going home with 2 striped bass per person, vs the 1 per person limit for recreational anglers.  Regulations then changed, limiting the catch to 1 fish per person for all anglers.  Three years ago, in 2020, NYS introduced a slot size, further hurting the ability of captains to catch striped bass for our customers and requiring not only a minimum size of 28”, but also a maximum size of 35”.  And then, earlier this year, the ASMFC approved its preposterous emergency action, which was subsequently implemented by the NYS Department of Environmental Conservation on June 20, 2023, reducing that maximum size to 31”, leaving us with a slot range of a mere 3”.

“The emergency action will have a direct adverse impact on our for-hire fleet.  Our customers expect to take fish home after paying a charter or party boat fare.  With the rising prices of fuel, bait, tackle and insurance, our captains have had no choice but to raise their rates.  From our customers’ perspectives, the increase in rates is ofttimes offset by the ability to put fish in their coolers to bring home for their families.  Particular in light of rising costs for basic groceries, this trade-off is essential.  If our customers are unable to bring fish home, they will be less inclined to book a fishing trip.  This, in turn, also hurts our local businesses, including hotels, restaurants and shops, all of which rely upon Montauk’s visitors to thrive.”

Taking away the breathless rhetoric, and leaving aside the fact that, if putting groceries on the table is the ultimate goal, it’s a lot cheaper, and a lot more certain, to buy fish rather than charter a boat and attempt to catch them, the argument breaks down to a simple proposition:  Customers won’t patronize for-hire boats if they aren’t reasonably sure of bringing home a striped bass.

Is that proposition rooted in reality, or is it merely one more argument made by folks uncomfortable with change, no matter how necessary that change might be?

To examine that question objectively, I analyzed Marine Recreational Information Program data for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023. 

2021 provided a baseline, when the 28- to 35-inch slot was still in effect, most of the big 2015 year class had yet to enter that slot, and fishing mortality was very slightly below the fishing mortality target.  2022 saw the 2015s enter the slot in large numbers, causing recreational landings to spike and driving fishing mortality well above target without, so far as we know right now, exceeding the threshold that defines overfishing, and so created optimum conditions for for-hire customers who wanted to take a striped bass home.  The emergency measure which created the 28- to 31-inch slot limit became effective on July 1, 2023, although most states adopted it sooner, and so provides a gauge of how Addendum II’s continuation of that slot should impact the for-hire fishery.

I limited my inquiry to three categories of data:  For-hire striped bass landings, for-hire trips primarily targeting striped bass, and total for-hire trips in each state.  I also limited the inquiry to the New England states, New York, and New Jersey, since Maryland’s and Virginia’s for-hire bass fishery does much of its fishing in the Chesapeake Bay, and thus wasn’t be significantly impacted by the ocean slot limit, while Delaware’s for-hire fishery for striped bass is too small to generate meaningful data.

I was surprised by what the data revealed.

Based on the comments that I heard at various New York meetings, as well as the comments submitted with respect to Addendum II, I expected the number of directed striped bass trips to decline sharply in 2023, but that wasn’t the case.  In four of the seven states analyzed, the number of such directed trips taken in 2023 was higher than the number taken in the 2021 base year, when regulations were less restrictive.  

That was also the case when 2023 striped bass fishing effort was compared to effort in 2022, which provided the most favorable conditions for the catch-and-keep fishery since Addendum VI to Amendment 6 to the Atlantic Striped Bass Interstate Fishery Management Plan was implemented in 2020 (although the New Jersey increase in 2023 was so small as to be statistically indistinguishable from the directed effort in 2022; New Jersey’s 2023 effort might well have been significantly lower had New Jersey not delayed implementation of the emergency measure until July 1, thus allowing its for-hire fleet to take full advantage of the strong spring striped bass run in Raritan Bay).

Maine, New Hampshire, and Connecticut all saw directed striped bass trips in 2023 exceed the number of such trips made in both 2021 and 2022, while Massachusetts’ 2023 directed striped bass trips were about 27% higher than the 2021 total, but about 23% lower than the number of such trips made in 2022 (when considering such percentages, it’s necessary to remember that there is always some uncertainty in the estimates, particularly when made at both the state and sector level; thus, it’s reasonable to say that the relative increase in Massachusetts’ 2023 effort compared to 2021, and the decrease in effort when compared to 2022, were roughly equivalent). 

There were other coastal states that saw directed trips drop over the three years.  Both New Jersey and Rhode Island saw 2023 directed for-hire striped bass trips decline by about 20% when compared to 2021, while the number of New York’s directed for-hire trips fell far more sharply, by about 55%, over those two years.  It would be easy to argue that, in those states at least, the emergency regulations caused real harm to the for-hire fleet.

But, once again, the data does not support that claim.

In all three states, a significant decline in directed for-hire striped bass trips occurred in 2022, the very year when the big 2015 year class grew into the 28- to 35-inch slot caused recreational landings to spike, and should have made catch-and-keep anglers eager to book trips aboard for-hire boats.  Those striped bass bookings did not occur.  Instead, 2022 for-hire effort trailed that of 2021 by 13% in Rhode Island, 20% in New Jersey, and 31% in New York, even though anglers’ chances of catching a legal fish increased substantially.

If we add landings data to the number of directed trips taken in the three states, we find that in Rhode Island, anglers retained only 0.34 bass per for-hire trip—about one fish for every three outings—in 2021.  Although retention more than doubled, to 0.74 bass per trip, in 2022, the number of directed for-hire trips taken went down.  In New York, for-hire anglers retained about 0.43 bass per trip in 2021 and 0.67 bass per trip one year later, yet the number of for-hire trips taken in 2022 declined by a far greater percentage than it did in Rhode Island.

New Jersey’s data provides an even more puzzling pattern, as landings per for-hire trip dropped from 0.78 fish in 2021 to 0.68 fish in 2022, despite the greater availability of the the 2015s, and the for-hire effort decreased as well.  But even though the emergency regulations restricted the number of legal fish available, 2023 landings per trip increased to 0.84, although the number of trips taken didn’t change.

At that point, it becomes pretty clear that something other than an increase or decrease in the availability of legal striped bass is driving for-hire bookings.

In Rhode Island, while directed for-hire striped bass trips declined between 2021 and 2023, the number of overall for-hire trips increased substantially—by 34%--over those years, suggesting that the decline in the availability of legal striped bass did not lead to a corresponding decline in for-hire revenues.

In New Jersey and New York, the decline in directed striped bass trips corresponded to a larger, overall decline in the number of for-hire trips taken, regardless of the species targeted.  In New Jersey, overall for-hire effort fell by 40% between 2021 and 2023, even though striped bass only comprised between 13% and 17% of for-hire landings during that time—and made the greatest contribution to overall landings in the same year that the emergency measure was imposed.

In New York, overall for-hire effort fell by 32% between 2021 and 2022, the same year that directed striped bass landings fell by a statistically indistinguishable 31%; between 2022 and 2023, directed for-hire bass trips fell by 33%, while overall for-hire effort only fell by 3%.  Thus, while the emergency regulations might have discouraged for-hire anglers from pursuing striped bass, as may also have been the case in Rhode Island, they probably did not lead to a significant loss of for-hire revenues.

In summary, MRIP data provides little or no evidence suggesting that the 28- to 31-inch emergency striped bass slot limit led to substantial reduction in overall for-hire revenues in 2023 (although there is no way to disprove that, had the emergency action not been taken, revenues might have been somewhat higher).  In three of the seven states examined, more directed striped bass trips were taken in 2023 than were taken in either 2021 or 2022; in a fourth state, Massachusetts, more directed for-hire trips were taken in 2023 than in 2021, although fewer than in 2022. 

The three states which saw directed for-hire striped bass trips decrease from 2021 levels all shared a common pattern:  The greater part of the decrease occurred in 2022, before the emergency action was taken, and was thus entirely unrelated to the 28- to 31-inch slot limit.  However, in two of those states, Rhode Island and New York, a further decrease in directed for-hire trips occurred in 2023, which may or may not have been related to the emergency measure.  It is notable that, in both Rhode Island and New York, an increase in for-hire trips targeting other species led to either an increase (RI) or statistically trivial decrease (NY) in the overall number of for-hire trips taken in 2023, so that overall for-hire revenues likely either increased or were largely unchanged.

That does not mean that some individual for-hire operations were not impacted by the emergency action.  Any operation that had a client base primarily interested in catching and keeping striped bass, which was either unable or unwilling to expand into other fisheries or into the catch-and-release striped bass fishery, probably suffered a significant revenue loss as a result of the emergency measure.  Also, for-hire operators in states which suffered a decline in overall effort over the three-year period, as was the case in New Jersey and New York, also likely experienced revenue loss, although a decline in striped bass bookings, whether or not due to the emergency action, was not the decisive cause.

That being said, 2023 data presents a snapshot of a particular time with respect to the state of the striped bass stock.  2023 patterns of landings and effort do not necessarily predict the future. 

While Addendum II perpetuates the emergency action’s 28- to 31-inch slot limit, 2024 will see only a small portion of the 2015 year class fall within the bounds of the slot.  Instead, the primary cohort of fish falling within the slot will be 2017s, with 2018s taking their place in 2025 (assuming that, as was the case with the 2015 year class, the average 8-year-old bass is 31.5 inches long).  Both of those year classes recruited into the population in reasonably good numbers, although the recruitment of neither year class, at age1, was close to the recruitment of the 2015 year class at the same age.  Given that the weak 2016 year class was seven years old, the age when the average-sized fish should have fallen within the slot, in 2023, it is very possible that 2024 and/or 2025 will see a larger number of legal-sized bass available to anglers.

If that proves to be the case, it will be even harder to argue that Addendum II’s 28- to 31-inch slot limit causes any harm at all.