Sunday, May 5, 2019

IT HAS FINALLY BEEN SAID



Most of his testimony was predictable.  As a guide who takes people fishing just about every day, from April into December, he spoke of the need to manage fisheries for abundance, so that both his clients and everyday anglers can have a reasonable expectation of encountering fish when they choose to go out.

He spoke of the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, and its unprecedented success in ending overfishing and rebuilding overfished stocks.  In that context, he spoke of the importance of Magnuson-Stevens’ strict requirements that overfishing not be permitted and that overfished stocks be promptly rebuilt because, as he knows from his nine years of service on the Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council, without those requirements, the political pressure to do nothing, and maintain short-term harvest levels—along with the short-term economic benefits that such harvest would yield—would inevitably lead to management inaction, and the depletion of the nation’s fish stocks.

He spoke of the need to expand ecosystem-based fisheries management, and the protection of forage fish.  He spoke of the need to improve recreational fishing data collection, and the need to adjust fishery management measures for the effects of climate change.

All of that is true.  But all of that has also been said before, by Capt. McMurray and others, although it never hurts to remind legislators about it, just one more time.

Yet there was one truth embedded in his testimony that, so far as I know, has never been raised before a Congressional committee before—the consistent failure of the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Committee to rebuild overfished stocks, and to maintain such stocks at sustainable levels.


But all such comments have been suspiciously devoid of any objective, supporting data, and Capt. McMurray quickly demolished such claims with the easily verifiable statement, reproduced here from his written testimony, that

“On the issue of managing federal stocks like the states manage their fisheries, one need not look any farther than the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC)—A cooperative compact of East Coast states that share migratory fishery resources.  While their charter would certainly seem to suggest that they prevent overfishing and rebuild stocks, they have no federal or other mandate to do so.  As a result, this body frequently bows to political pressure and allows overfishing.
“The ONLY stock the Commission has successfully rebuild since it was created in 1942, is Atlantic striped bass.  Now, however, a recent stock assessment has revealed that even striped bass are once again overfished and subject to continued overfishing.  Certainly, the Commission could have avoided that.  And if striped bass had been managed under federal law it’s likely that they would have.”
Capt. McMurray’s written testimony would have been provided to House Committee staff well before the day that he testified, so it didn’t contain another very relevant fact:  The day before the Subcommittee hearing, ASMFC’s Atlantic Striped Bass Management Board held its spring meeting, where it initiated an addendum to address the stock assessment’s findings.


“If the Management Board determines that the biomass has fallen below the threshold in any given year, the Board must adjust the striped bass management program to rebuild the biomass to the target level within [no more than 10 years]. [emphasis added]”
A biologist belonging to ASMFC’s Atlantic Striped Bass Technical Committee did advise the Management Board that reducing fishing mortality to or below the fishing mortality target would “theoretically” lead to the biomass rebuilding to target biomass, at some undetermined point in the future.

But there’s a big difference between “theoretically” rebuilding the biomass at some point in the future, and a non-discretionary requirement (because “must” doesn’t allow any discretion) to rebuild that biomass within 10 years.

If Capt. McMurray had been able to include comments on ASMFC’s seeming indifference to mandatory rebuilding measures in its own striped bass management plan, and its obvious failure to make any effort to timely rebuild the overfished stock, in his testimony, would have merely reinforced the undeniable truth of his words when he ultimately stated

“It is my opinion that such management body should be subject to some sort of federal oversight in the near future.  It would be good if the Commission had to comply with the same federal mandates that the Councils do.  [emphasis added]”
That would include preventing overfishing.  Promptly rebuilding overfished stocks.  And basing management decisions on the best available science.


ASMFC management decisions are made primarily by amateurs—the governors’ and legislative appointees who, by-and-large, have no formal education in fishery management, but often have an economic or other interest in the outcome of management decisions—rather than by trained, professional fishery managers, who are outnumbered two-to-one in each state’s delegation to every ASMFC management board. 

That is a recipe for fisheries disasters, particularly when there are no legal constraints the exercise of such amateurs’ discretion.  Under such circumstances, it’s hardly surprising when management decisions fail to follow the dictates of science, and instead represent the short-term economic interests of the businesses, friends, neighbors and industries that are important to each appointee.




By 2029, most of the Commissioners who voted to approve that provision will probably be retired or otherwise gone, leaving it to someone else to clean up their mess in Long Island Sound--if there are enough tautog left in the Sound to make the effort worthwhile.

American lobster—at least the Southern New England stock—is faring far worse than the tautog are.  Like northern shrimp, the southern stock of lobster is facing changing, and increasingly hostile, environmental conditions.  And like northern shrimp, ASMFC managers are ignoring the science that calls for a fishery closure, and maintaining the harvest at unsustainable rates, adopting weak and largely symbolic management actions while avoiding the hard decisions needed to, with some luck, allow the lobster the respite they need to survive in a changing sea.

So if Southern New England lobster share the northern shrimp’s fate, we can probably figure out why.

Which brings us back to striped bass today, when ASMFC stands ready and willing to ignore the fact that the stock is again overfished, and also to ignore a clear mandate to rebuild in the striped bass management plan.


And those are the sort of things that caused the Sustainable Fisheries Act to be passed in the first place—irresponsible management actions taken contrary to the public interest in healthy, abundant and sustainable fish populations, in order to promote the private interests of a handful of people who want to squeeze the last bit of profit, for as long as they can, out of declining fish stocks.

Thus, Capt. McMurray said what desperately needed to be said.  

The ASMFC management process is badly broken, and needs to be fixed.  And he said it in the right place, before legislators capable, and hopefully willing, to make such fix happen.

They can do that in one of two ways.

They can require that the ASMFC management boards are again peopled by trained fishery managers, as they were prior to a 2000 change in the Commission’s charter, with the appointees serving only in an advisory role.

That would be in accord with the way that most natural resources are managed.

Or they can amend the Atlantic Coastal Fisheries Cooperative Management Act, as they amended Magnuson-Stevens, with a “Sustainable Inshore Fisheries Act,” that would impose the same sort of management measures on ASMFC as already apply to the regional fishery management councils.

One way or another, as Capt. McMurray pointed out, something needs to be done.

Because Atlantic coastal fisheries need conservation and science-based management, too.




18 comments:

  1. Mr. Witek…

    Charles, in reference to Captain John McMurray as a 'guide' in your blog, it is not accurate as far as what is found in the definitions within 24.10-1 within the CFR as it pertains to operators of uninspected vessels who carry passengers for economic benefit, thus receiving a payment for the service with the intent of going fishing. Thus he is licensed and given the legal ability to do so by a federal agency the USCG, and must comply with NMFS requirements by filing a VTR for his trip in providing catch and harvest information which is used for MRIP estimates. These estimates when provided to the public using the MRIP Data Query tool list four recreational modes, party, charter, private vessel and shore, and there is no recognition of another mode such as a 'guide' to either provide or meet mandatory fish catch reporting requirements. This is a layman's term at best, and carries no bearing for regulatory guidance for either the science or management level.


    It also brings us to the use of the term, "abundance" as you keep parroting a term which has little if any bearing in specification setting on various fish stocks. It is essentially akin to saying "depleted" which ha now become common vernacular used within fishery circles.


    Management recognizes and has set 'thresholds' and 'targets' which are accepted legal descriptions for the size of a biomass (both spawning stock and overall numbers of critters) and the basis upon which is used to manage individual species for MSY. The question then becomes and has been asked, "How high above the TARGET or THRESHOLD does a stock have to be in order for fishermen to have some modicum of liberalization for harvest of a species?" Can you please provide us an example with a number for Black Sea Bass in the MAFMC management region when as of this time it Is 2x or greater above the Target; isn’t that ‘abundant as you have stated and good enough for reasonable liberalization in the near future, say 2020?


    If a stock is officially declared rebuilt, then by the legal requirements and definitions found within the MSA and the National Standard Guidelines, is it not ‘abundant?’ More so, a stock may be 'abundant' even if it is in a state of over fished and over fishing occurring as we now see with striped bass as these two measures were set in 1995.

    Please quantify what abundance would be if you were on the SSC or some technical committee, working group of Plan Development Team. If these scientific groups just "moved the goal post" as you have stated in your previous blog for the threshold and target, wouldn't the over fishing and over fished status just go away, and the striped bass stock for all intent purposes, still would be abundant?

    Thank you,

    Steve EC Newellman

    NY RFHFA

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    Replies
    1. While "guide" may not be a category recognized for licensing or reporting purposes, that distinction has little relevance to the point of this particular essay, which is that ASMFC often does not, and is not legally required, to rebuild overfished stocks nor to end overfishing, and that stocks have suffered as a result. In fact, most of your comments are irrelevant to ASMFC, as they involve federal laws and standards that do not currently apply.

      However, to address your other comments, beginning with that of "abundance,: I refer to Magnuson-Stevens' definition of optimum yield, which, in relevant part for this discussion is maximum sustainable yield, as reduced by any relevant economic, social or ecological factor.

      Fish stocks are not managed, as you suggest, for MSY, but rather for optimum yield.

      In the federal, but not the ASMFC, process, managers first establish the overfishing limit, which is Fmsy. The SSC then reduces that to account for scientific uncertainty, to reach an Acceptable Biological Catch. That ABC may or may not represent optimum yield. In the case of a meat fish, such as scup, it probably does. In the case of a sport fish such as bluefish, where the very act of angling, and encountering fish, is more important to most anglers than merely harvesting fish, social and economic considerations may well dictate that optimum yield should be set well below the ABC, in order to create greater abundance and thus more opportunity for anglers to encounter fish. Once optimum yield is set, fishing mortality targets and thresholds that will adequately constrain harvest can be established.

      Biomass targets and thresholds are not legally required, as you claim, but rather are set to better comply with the legal requirement that a stock not become overfished; Btarget is generally set at the biomass that can produce MSY, while the overfishing threshold is set at some lower point--often but not alwasy 50% of Btarget, to define an overfished stock.

      Liberalization of regulations is a very different thing from increasing the ABC, because of the effort factor. In the case of sea bass, we had more liberal regulations when we had a smaller stock, because the fish was not targeted as heavily as it now is, since becoming more abundant. Abundance drives effort, so it's not uncommon to see regulations become restrictive when fish stocks expand, because of higher angler effort. Thus, it's impossible to answer your question about when to liberalize regulations, because I don't have the effort piece, and it's overall, not individual, landings that matter.

      And no, moving the goal posts don't render an overfished stock more abundant; abundance is a measure of angler opportunity and satisfaction with the overall experience of encountering fish. On the other hand, reference points should be rooted in biology, with the reductions needed to achieve optimum yield. By "moving the goal posts" on striped bass, the spawning stock would include fewer of the oldest and most fecund females, a situation that increases risk for the long-term health of the population--largely because it decreases abundance, particularly in the segment of the population where it matters most/

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  2. Charles.

    Your blog has a 4,096 character limit and my response is well over 500 characters long. I can split into two parts if that is appropriate.

    Thank you,
    Steve EC Newellman
    NY RFHFA

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. Good Monday morning...

    Part I of III

    Charles...

    A 'guide' is not recognized under USCG guidelines for licensing whether 6 pack or the various tonnage allowances, nor NMFS for fishery reporting. It is a label one may place upon the charter services they provide, but has no legal bearing in both the licensing and reporting realm. It is akin to a ‘cruising’ service which combines diving, fishing, sight-seeing and food preparation during an on the water excursion where a fee is paid by the person.

    To your next point, agreed with the ASMFC and their poor management decisions of particular species such as tautog and winter flounder, but that was not the trust of the discussion nor the point being made as it was about the term you used, "abundance."

    As per NS 1 that is OY or optimum yield or the mechanism for the objectives by management, but the trust of your essay was on abundance, and that is Msy and that is with the design of the regulations in order to ensure F (mortality) does not exceed, or in using the legal terminology, "the fishing mortality rate which must not jeopardize the capacity of a stock to produce Msy." Your use of abundance shifted the discussion to what management decides in the process of regulation setting based on the size of the biomass to the associated catch and as much harvest or removals which is Msy.

    Now I understand that we may have a disagreement here on the terms which we should not since they are defined, but you continue to move from legal to this "perception" about abundance. Thus you argument relies upon the realm of, "more fish available directly correlates to more anglers fishing and in part, higher effort levels" as the major driver for the “experience.”

    Really? Let us look at the state we reside in, as the numbers of anglers fishing has steadily trended downward during a time period that stocks were rebuilt such as fluke, bsb, scup and striped bass.

    Undoubtedly the changing age (or more so 'aging') along with shifting foreign born population demographics of people who fish in the downstate NY Marine District have resulted in less private boaters going fishing as compared 1980s and 1990s...less marinas and boat rental stations during the same time period along the waterfront....less party boats which carried at one time more anglers than charter boats, as well as less brick and mortar tackle shops.

    End of Part I

    Steve EC Newellman
    NY RFHFA





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    1. Optimum yield is not necessarily msy; it is msy reduced for certain considerations. Abundance can certainly be viewed as affecting economic and social considerations related to recreation. And yes, I maintain that abundance does drive effort; and we can see that right hear in New York where, over the past five years, effort has remained relatively constant. From 2014 through 2017, it hovered between 15.3 million and 16.6 million trips; however, the bottom fell out of effort in 2018, when only about 10 million trips were taken, with most of the loss in Wave 4. Now, weather may play a role in part of that, as there was quite a bit of wind and rain, but 2018 was also a year marked by poor fluke fishing on most of Long Island, very few bluefish, and few summer striped bass except on the East End. The traditional triad of fish pursued by private boats--because that is where the effort was primarily down--weren't available, and most people weren't interested in going out and finding very few fish.

      When you start looking back at the 1980s and 1990s, and compare that to today, effort has actually increased, from 9 million in 1981, when there was no striped bass fishery but bluefish were everywhere, to 8.5 million in 1989 when fluke hit bottom but bass were coming back. Effort broke 10 million for the first time in 1999, and peaked at 16.6 million in 2017. So it is possible to draw a correlation between increasing abundance and increasing effort in New York. Yes, businesses are changing as more anglers seem to be moving from for-hires, particularly party boats, to private vessels. And shops are closing, as local shops are unable or unwilling to compete with online retailers. What we're seeing is what I talk about all the time--old business models are failing, and are being replaced with new ones; those who can't or won't change are being increasingly left behind, particularly in a world where people have less leisure time, are more particular in how they spend it, and tend to want higher levels of service than people were willing to settle for before.

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  5. Part II of III

    Also with the most restrictive recreational regulations which has literally resulted in catch and release fisheries, despite 'abundance' with what were a number of rebuilt stocks. The abundance you speak of has resulted in the 'pencil whipping' we in the recreational sector are now charged with, as we first saw after the 2015 benchmark with BSB. Then we felt the wrath with the summer flounder assessment where once again it was the high rate of regulatory discards as reported by the new MRIP re-calibration. Finally the issue with the release discard mortality for striped bass exceeding harvest, which is in part bringing us to a time where harsh increases in minimum size will be considered and which will drive this wasteful component even higher.

    More so, it becomes a "play on words" as if some fish is not abundant or as abundant in anecdotal terms when comparing over a decade time series, thus it must be depleted as it has not reached a particular level where angler "opportunity and satisfaction," the phrase you used, lessens the overall "experience" of the fishing trip. It is doubtful with striped bass that less anglers are fishing with the diminished abundance when compared as you may say to a few years back. In fact as the various regulatory bodies have so constrained possession limits to being akin to freshwater limits for most of our species, as well as limiting the access (open time periods) and availability due to the productivity in an area (high minimum sizes) to rebuilt species such as BSB and summer flounder, your thoughts on abundance can be questioned about angler sanctification and enjoyment.

    I never thought of fish as "play things" to amuse oneself by sticking a hook and piercing some part of its body, fighting it to exhaustion, and then releasing it back into the environment where it much heal from what may be a serious injury, but so exhausted that it is extremely vulnerable to natural "hunger games" mortality.

    Fish are a high value protein source in which most people with lower and working class incomes wish to take home, at least for more than a few dinners. Little more then what we currently see with angling behavior being forced to target the highest possession-regulated species, scup, as it is a fish that is consumed by these income groups. Restrictive limits to popular bottom species such as fluke and BSB has displaced anglers from these fisheries to striped bass in not only NY but our neighboring states.

    End of Part II

    Steve EC Newellman

    NY RFHFA

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    1. I both agree and disagree with your statements here. Yes, in some ways salt water fishing is beginning to resemble fresh water fishing, at least with respect to regulation, but I don't see that as a bad thing. We have to remember that the most popular sport fish in the nation are the various species of freshwater black bass, a fishery that provides huge economic benefits to local economies throughout the nation, without very many fish being harvested. I would argue that freshwater bass management may resemble the right paradigm for species such as striped bass, bluefish and weakfish, which are valued by most anglers for their sport value rather than as for food. And in the freshwater paradigm, we also have the notion of "panfish," which are harvested in greater numbers and subject to fewer restrictions. Scup, in particular, is the perfect salt water panfish--good-eating, abundant and easy to catch, and seemingly prolific enough to stand fairly high levels of fishing effort. As far as them being the fish of lower-income folks, while that may be true, I have to admit that any time I'm fishing inshore and can find some decent-sized scup, I'll be more than happy to put a few in the box; they're one of the more underappreciated fish off our coast.

      If you don't believe that fewer anglers are fishing for bass these days, compared to, say, five years ago, you haven't been talking to enough striped bass fishermen. There are plenty of bass clubs here on Long Island, and every time I speak to one of their reps, all I hear is that people are fishing less. I talk to people who sell tackle to the bass crowd, and they tell me that their sales are down as much as 40%. So yes, there is less activity, again particularly among the private boats.

      As far as discard mortality goes, much of it occurs in Maryland, as new year classes enter the population but fall below the minimum size. Maryland put in a circle hook requirement that seems to be working, beginning last season, although Maryland still needs to do more, perhaps with a season that will close the fishery when water temperatures are high, oxygen levels are low, and release mortality spikes. But otherwise, from a biological standpoint, it doesn't matter what happens to a fish after it dies. What matters is that removals are kept low enough to maintain the stock at levels that are sustainable in the long term. So if release mortality needs to me increased by 10,000 in order to keep another 100,000 fish alive and in the water--which is where you end up with a 9% mortality rate--that seems like a worthwhile tradeoff.

      As to whether catch and release fishing is ethical, as opposed to fishing strictly for food, that is a matter of personal ethics. We each have our views, and there is no impartial arbiter to say who is right and who is wrong.

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  6. Part III of III

    You have written a response which I do applaud for both the thoughts, legal definitions and prose. It did though - expose the underbelly of threshold and target which you never answered (in your terms of abundance which I keep emphasizing since it is the theme of your piece) and this goes along to the discussions at every fishery meeting about having abundant fish stocks such as black sea bass, yet regulations become more restrictive. Where is the satisfaction in that particular fishery where the regulatory discarding of BSB, by and far makes up the days catch? Can you answer that without going into control rules and risk policy of the MAFMC, or do we again have to venture into this fishery minutiae which few care to read?

    Charles, I do understand your point of view, but your theme of and on abundance still leaves questions in relation to what you discussed with threshold and target. Is any fish abundant when it reaches and surpasses the threshold? How high above the target would maximum abundance be in order to have greater liberalization and greater angler enjoyment? You have neglected to explain this part, and I do foresee this as the give and take between your and my views in not only properly regulating our regional fisheries, but in what fishermen are allowed to actually harvest during a fishing trip.


    Steve EC Newellman
    NY RFHFA

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    1. It's impossible to discuss the matter, in the context of black sea bass, without talking about control rules and such, because what we're talking about is, at its root, biology.

      Yes, the population of black sea bass is large--I would argue that the fish are, in fact, "abundant" right now, although I have other concerns with portions of the stock. If we believe the Northeast Science Center tag study released about 10 years ago, you and I are fishing on the same sub-group of fish, what I'll call, for purposes of convenience, a central sub-stock that summers somewhere between Moriches Inlet and northern Virginia, and moves offshore and somewhat further south during the winter. What I've noticed over the past decade is that those fish have become more abundant, but that we're not seeing big fish during the summer any more. When I fish wrecks where, in July, I used to get a good number of fish between 3 and 4 pounds, with a few over 4 now I'm working to get a few barely-keepable 16-inch fish. Raises concerns that growth overfishing could be occurring despite the size of the stock; instead of growing into larger sizes, the 2011s, for the most part, just disappeared. Now we have the 2015s coming up, and if they follow the same path as the 2011s, and we don't produce another very big year class this year or next, the fishery is going to head downhill very fast. Until such new year class is confirmed and makes it through it first winter, I wouldn't be rushing to relax regulations if I was planning to do any sea bass fishing four or five years from now.

      But sea bass are actually a good example of how abundance helps the angler.

      Regulations are based on an annual catch limit, which, in turn, is ultimately based on a removal rate that begins with Fmsy. If that rate is applied to a more abundant stock, the harvest will be larger. But, again, if more people fish because of such abundance, regulations might have to be tightened in order to keep overall landings below Fthreshold/Fmsy.

      So your question is impossible to answer without considering the effort component. I'll use my own black sea bass experience as an example.

      If we go back 10 or so years ago, the black sea bass population was not as abundant as it is today--but fluke were doing well, so most people would stay off the wrecks during the summer. Regulations were fairly relaxed, with a 15-fish bag and a 12 1/2 or 13-inch size limit. I could run out to a piece in July (the season opened in May), be completely alone, and just drop down a couple of clam-baited hooks. I'd be catching double-headers, with most fish male and many over 3 pounds. Double-headers weighing a combined 7 pounds or more happened a few times each trip. Not only was there no need to keep anything under 16 inches or so, but I caught very few fish that size, because the big males were so aggressive that they took the baits first.

      Move to five years or so ago. The bag limit is now 8 fish, and the size limit was 13 or so inches. Fluke fishing is still pretty good, but there are more anglers starting to show up on the wrecks. I'm rarely alone, and might share a piece with one to three other boats. The fish are not as consistently large as they were, but I can still limit out in less time than it took me to run to the wreck, which some quality fish over 3 and some over 4.

      The loss of the larger fish in a population is never a good sign, although sea bass are so prolific that a 15" minimum size should be able to maintain the stock even under current levels of fishing mortality.

      It's only in the last few weeks of the year, when the northern fish (again using the NEFSC study when making that reference) migrate down and take up residence further offshore, do large fish again become a reasonably regular part of the catch.

      Under such a situation, I would think it irresponsible to liberalize regulations without scientific assurance that doing so would not significantly increase risk to the stock.

      Delete
  7. Due the length of my reply, over 11,000 characters, this retort will be broken down into a number of separate parts.

    Part 1:

    Good afternoon, and I want to thank you Charles for your comment on this particular topic, and I am glad we can further converse on these regulatory issues.

    The MAFMC and in the case of Black Sea Bass in this discussion, is currently working on adjusting/modifying the control rules as it is noted in this May 2019 - MAFMC SSC guidance OFL CV document:
    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/511cdc7fe4b00307a2628ac6/t/5cc98222085229806883cd93/1556709923082/Draft+OFL+CV+guidance+document_05_01_19docx.pdf
    As you read through page 1 it is noted and this is partial quote from the sentence,

    “When the ABC control rule was initially adopted, a default amount of uncertainty was estimated from a meta-analysis of accuracy of estimates from simulation studies.”

    This issue had been - until the 2015 BSB Benchmark Assessment was completed and answered the TOR (Terms of Reference) was on the survey data providing us with the most updated science on stock structure, BRP (Biological Reference Points), ratio of male to female SSB, the line of delineation on the recognition of a northern and southern sub-stock as well as what most ‘laymen’ as we fishermen are will look, the threshold and target of the Black Sea Bass stock. We also have a good idea of F mortality from the commercial and recreational sector which provides management with an idea on catch as well as removals, and gives us guidance for setting specifications on an allocation to which fishermen can harvest in the following calendar year.

    Control rules and the risk policy are noted as a buffer for ‘uncertainty’ due to the time lag in reacting to survey assessments coordinated through both the NEFSC and various state surveys on the stock, as well as the buffer for the high variability as seen with recreational catch data estimates in order to prevent over fishing.

    For the fishing public who are reading through our discussion, this is the balancing act between allocation and regulation setting as it filters down from the SSC through the Council then Commission and ultimately the individual states. The under pinning of control rules and the risk policy set on the Council level has a biological focus, thus I agree with what you stated in your opening sentence.

    It is documented that Black Sea Bass is the most robust finfish stock under the management of the MAFMC with it currently being more than 2x above the target. Reference for this statement is provided here and also note “as of March 25, 2019”for this being the most recent data on Stock Size Relative to Biological Reference Points:
    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/511cdc7fe4b00307a2628ac6/t/5c9e151ae79c700547ec3895/1553863962661/b_Stock+Size_BRP_F_Ratios_2019-03-25.pdf

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  8. Part II:

    You have noted in an previous essay you wrote in your blog, ‘Trust then Verify’ where you made this statement, to wit:

    “It’s true that, back in 2015, the black sea bass biomass was estimated to be at 230% of the biomass target. But that was in 2015. Since then, because of the decline of the formerly large 2011 year class, black sea bass numbers have been in steady decline. The stock is still very healthy, with spawning stock biomass probably somewhere between 123% and 160% of target, but the 240% number hasn’t been valid for at least three years.
    http://oneanglersvoyage.blogspot.com/2018/07/trust-then-verify.html

    This statement which you publicly made is being noted here since we are focusing on the science instead of what you provided in your most recent essay as ‘anecdotal’ information. Last year it was sent to Brandon Muffley the Black Sea Bass Fishery Specialist for the MAFMC at that time who then provided this statement to what you wrote, to wit:

    “So it is true that the population was projected to decline because of the declining 2011 year class, but I have no idea where the biomass estimates of 123% to 160% of target came from.
    The assessment has not been updated since the end of 2016, when the original estimates were developed, to provide an update on overall stock condition in relation to the target.
    This person may have seen biomass projection estimates from the assessment (likely published in a few locations) and compared to the target.
    However, those are not reflective of the current situation because they do not include new catch and harvest information and they do not include information on the 2015 year class which will have implications for the current biomass estimates.”

    It brings us to a theme which you consistently bring up almost each and every time in your essays, and the question which one would then ask,

    “Fisheries management is only as good as the science that it’s based upon. The better the science, the more effective the management.”

    Strangely enough, your most recent essay which appeared on the ‘Conserve Fish .org’ website, and the talking point on ‘Political Influence Takes Over ASMFC Management,’ references this from you, to wit:

    “Thus, the science-based system that rebuilt the striped bass population was replaced by a system largely dependent on the uninformed opinions of political appointees and their proxies, who often had personal motivations that caused them to vote against management measures recommended by the ASMFC’s staff biologists. The results were predictable: the ASMFC’s efforts to rebuild fish stalled. Some once-healthy populations went into decline.”

    This is an interesting statement coming from a NYS MRAC advisor who does not apply this to a stock managed by the MAFMC that was not only declared fully rebuilt, but is currently the most robust finfish as per the “best available science” that has been provided by the NEFSC and vetted through a peer-review process. So by that standard, one not only wonders, but can have confusion on the final sentence in your blog and essay I am commenting upon,
    “Under such a situation, I would think it irresponsible to liberalize regulations without scientific assurance that doing so would not significantly increase risk to the stock.”

    I ask you Charles,
    1- How high above the Target does a stock have to be to liberalize regulations? Can you provide us with a number?
    2- Isn’t it noted in GARFO and MAFMC documents over the last few years from both the science and from staff guidance that there is always uncertainty in the eventual regulation setting, especially when they note that “prior RHL's on Black Sea Bass were not reflective of the true stock size.” Isn’t this part of the reason why New York is now fishing upon a minimum BSB 15” size limit?
    3- How much assurance based upon the science in your words, does a Councilor, Commissioner or state advisor need when this is the “best available?” Wouldn’t it shift your voting position as a NYS MRAC advisor? What more could be given here on stock status?

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    1. A few issues here, so let's take them in order.

      1) Mr. Muffley's supposition is correct; the numbers you cite came from projections in the assessment, which were the bast information publicly available on the state of the stock at the time. The point of the essay they appeared in was the that 240% number that everyone was throwing around at the time was known to be dated, because the biomass had declined as the 2011s were fished down. In August, when the assessment update comes out we'll find out where it is today.

      2) As I've said before, there is no way to answer your question about how high the biomass must be before liberalizing regulations without also addressing how high the removals are. You need to look at both the size of the stock and the magnitude of the fishing mortality. To put it in financial terms, someone may have $10 million in the bank, but if he spends $11 million, he'll be bankrupt. On the other hand, someone else may only have $100,000, but if he spends just $30,000, he'll be solvent. Whether regulations should be tightened or liberalized requires you to look at both sides of the equation.

      3) Yes, there is always error in any scientific calculation. In a fisheries context, that's why Fmsy can't be used for a mortality target--uncertainty is far to likely to lead to overfishing. Since uncertainty is part of any regulatory calculation, yes, it played a part in NY's current rules, particularly when the 2015s weren't captured in the last assessment. But it should be noted that regulations should have been tightened for 2019, to accord with an 11% reduction in landings. The only reason they were left at status quo is because of the supposed role that the 2015s will play. So uncertainty cuts both ways.

      Members of federal fishery management councils, ASMFC commissioners, and people who sit on groups such as MRAC operate under different laws and serve different functions, so one answer doesn't cover all positions. Members of federal fishery management councils can rely on their SSC to provide input on the science and what is acceptable. At ASMFC, they should be following a similar standard, relying on stock assessments, etc., but they don't. At MRAC, we should be relying on the advice provided in stock assessments and by DEC staff, and should be qualifying our decisions by the reliability of the information; the less reliable, the more conservative we should be.

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  9. Part III:

    In the conclusion of your ‘Conserve Fish’ essay, you make this statement, and I just wonder if this applies when one looks into the mirror before an NYS MRAC meeting, to wit:

    “Unfortunately, the current situation isn’t likely to change. The ASMFC made a big mistake years ago when it took management decisions out of professional managers’ hands and made them hostage to the whims of political appointees. To correct that mistake, the appointees would have to be willing to cede their current power and return to their former advisory role.”

    This discussion has been somewhat exhaustively drawn out as their always tradeoffs when those in the regulatory realm make decisions on what the recreational sector can harvest. You presented an essay where “anecdotal meets science” and it is clear for anyone who has spent any amount of time harvest fishing from a particular fishery what has happened over a particular time series “in years chosen” to reinforce the strength of your discussion.

    Harvesting behavior was changed as regulations forced anglers to target larger fish, which should be a simple concept when one goes over the minimum retention size for such fish as summer flounder and BSB. As you push minimum sizes higher, you not only are creating more time in actual fishing to catch a limit thus handling fish, but you are purposely targeting the older and longer lived in a species.

    With summer flounder as we first learned about the Cornell Cooperative summer flounder study here in NY, and later with research by Rutgers on the summer flounder sex composition study, has provided us with the science that higher minimum sizes not only result in literally exclusively targeting the female SSB, but in the process you create much higher levels of regulatory discard mortality of both male and female fish. This is what is classified as ‘gender bias’ and typically the negative results are seen a few years thereafter.

    With Black Sea Bass, we are harvesting on much larger fish when we examine the catch data as measured against the productivity of BSB in the New Jersey and New York area. It is not only the reason why you hear fishermen talking about extremely high discards to fish kept, but overall you’re lessening the amount of older fish as you are now removing a higher number of 2 and 3 pound BSB, and then will never live as long to reach the eye catching and figuratively speaking super jumbo status of 4 and 5 pounds in the coming fishing seasons.

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    1. A lot of assumptions here that don't have much scientific support. As far as summer flounder go, all of the debates about killing females don't take into account the parameter called "steepnes," which assesses how dependent recruitment is on large numbers of females; the higher the steepness, the less the numbers of females matter. The steepness number for fluke is very high, meaning that large numbers of females are not needed to maintain the population. As far as recruitment goes, there are studies out there saying that the size of the year class isn't so munch dependent on the number of larvae produced, but on the survival of such larvae in their first year. Material provided in connection with a recent MAFMC meeting--might have been December '18--found that a slot would lead to higher fishing mortality than the current size limit.

      As far as the black sea bass comment goes, it is all conjecture. Of course, if people really want a smaller sea bass, they can always trade it for a shorter season.

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  10. Part IV:

    This same mistake will be made if a regulatory decision is made to adopt increases in the minimum size of striped bass in 2020. You have explained and provided your anecdotal perspective to what has clearly happened with the Black Sea Bass fishery within this region, and this can be applied to many of our regional fisheries when you increase fish sizes larger than the productivity of that area.

    We have described what you claim is “abundance,” but due to positions and voting in shaping regulatory options, you are skewing fishing mortality towards the harvest of the oldest fish. The result is not proactive, but reactive to management as you state:

    “The loss of the larger fish in a population is never a good sign, although BSB are so prolific that a 15” minimum size should be able to maintain the stock even under the current levels of (F) fishing mortality.”

    Yes, we have “abundance” which is the theme of your original essay, but by pushing minimum sizes larges you have fallen into a regulatory blackhole of “implementing increased minimum size to the eventual effect and negative impact of older fish within the age distribution of that fish stock.”

    Consider this thought when moving forward in your decisions with striped bass management in advocating for much larger minimum size limits. We can sum it up with your essay:

    You have called for the use of science in fishery management decisions…
    You cherry pick the data which best suits your arguments…
    You have provided anecdotal information which illustrates the result…

    In closing there is a document from November 2018 prepared for the MAFMC and NMFS on the socio and economic impact of future regulatory decisions in the ‘Environmental Assessment, Regulatory Impact Review, and Regulatory Flexibility Act Analysis’ which can be found here:
    https://static1.squarespace.com/static/511cdc7fe4b00307a2628ac6/t/5c180daacd8366e350cf8945/1545080238921/SFSBSB_2019_specs_EA.pdf

    Of note in the BSB discussion is this sentence within one of the alternative options, and is something you have previously brought up about the enjoyment or ‘experience’ of fishing, to wit:

    “Recreational anglers would be able to retain more black sea bass, which would increase angler satisfaction.”

    I will leave you with this last thought, as this is the polar opposite to what you stated in the final sentence of your reply.

    Thank you,

    Steve EC Newellman
    NY RFHFA

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  11. As I mentioned just above, if people want a higher bag, just shorten the season enough, and they can have it.

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