MARINE RECREATIONAL FISHERIES: IS "ACCESS" OVERRATED?

 

For the past decade or so, one of the big buzzwords in recreational fishery management has been “access.”

Thus, when the Cape Cod Charter Boat Association wrote to the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission in December 2023, requesting special regulations for charter and party boats that were more favorable than those that applied to everyone else, they argued that such special rules would provide

“the necessary conservation restrictions while enabling us to continue to provide access to the fishery for our customers.  [emphasis added]”

The Stellwagen Bank Charter Boat Association made similar comments, supporting

“mode management measures with separate slot limits for each mode type that recognizes that each mode type has its own goals, objectives and financial constraints that impacts ones access to the fishery…the for-hire fleet needs to operate a financially viable business as well as provide a mechanism for recreational anglers to be provided access to the fishery.  [emphasis added]”

In neither case, when asking for more "access," are the charter boat associations talking about their customers’ ability to merely fish for and actually catch striped bass.  No special regulations are required for that; the customers would be completely free to do so under the regulations applicable to all other anglers.  What the associations were really seeking were special regulations that allowed their customers to kill and take home striped bass that all other anglers would be required to release.

But if the Cape Cod folks said that they sought special management measures “enabling us to continue to kill more bass for our customers,” or the Stellwagen charter boats said that they sought “a mechanism for recreational anglers to be provided with more dead fish from the fishery,” it would sound kind of harsh and self-serving.  So they ask for more “access” instead, hoping that asking for more public “access” to a public resource would sound like the sort of motherhood and apple pie issue that no regulator would ever want to be against.

Similarly, out in California, the local chapter of the Coastal Conservation Association—a group one might think, judging from its name, would primarily be concerned with conservation issues, posts on its website that

“Our Mission Statement Is:  ‘Conserving The Resource and Anglers’ Access To It.’  Our Three Main Goals Are To Keep Our Fisheries Open With Pro-Fisheries Legislation And Preventing Arbitrary No-Fishing Zones, Building Artificial Reefs, And Increasing the Finfish Hatchery Program.  [emphasis added, capitalization in original]”

While the mission statement may give lip service to conservation issues, the chapter’s goals don’t speak to conservation at all, but rather seek to “Keep Our Fisheries Open With Pro-Fisheries Legislation,” presumably without regard to whether the condition of some fish stocks might justify closing some fisheries, at least for part of the year; to build artificial reefs that make it easier for anglers to find, catch, and take home fish; and to expand the state’s saltwater fish hatcheries, which serve no purpose other than to artificially mass-produce fish that anglers can then catch, kill, and take home.

So once again, we see an organization seeking to increase recreational landings, and doing so under the rhetoric of maintaining “access.”

A final example from the Gulf of Mexico saw the American Sportfishing Association—the recreational fishing tackle industry’s largest trade organization—organize a conference it called the Gulf Angler Focus Group, to discuss recreational red snapper management and other related issues.

At the time the meeting was held, recreational fishermen, primarily from the private boat sector, had been chronically exceeding the annual catch target, and often the entire recreational quota, for Gulf of Mexico red snapper, forcing federal fisheries managers to impose increasingly strict regulations.  Instead of taking responsibility for their actions, and admitting that they were exceeding the specifications put in place to protect the long-term health of the red snapper stock, the organized recreational fishing community struck out at federal fisheries managers.

Thus, Kellie Ralston, then the Florida Fishing Policy Director for the trade association, stated that

“The Gulf Angler Focus Group presents a more unified recreational fishing community that will result in clear management recommendations to ensure healthy red snapper and reef fish stocks while providing equitable and reasonable public access...

“In recent years, decreasing recreational fishing opportunities for Gulf red snapper have caused the recreational fishing community to become increasingly frustrated with federal management of the fishery.  The Gulf Angler Focus Group consists of representatives of angler organizations, unaffiliated private anglers, for-hire operators and recreational fishing industry members.  In consultation with all five state fisheries managers from the Gulf region, the Focus Group is developing a package of consensus management recommendations by the recreational sector for reasonable access and sustainable harvest of Gulf reef fish, with an emphasis on the red snapper fishery.   [emphasis added]”

One might argue that, if the recreational sector was already exceeding its annual catch target, and often its annual catch limit/recreational quota, on a regular basis it already had “reasonable access” to the resource, but that misses the point that the word “access,” when used by “anglers’ rights” organizations and many recreational industry groups, has become a gentle euphemism for killing more fish, whatever the species in question.

One might also note that, while the American Sportfishing Association might talk about “present[ing] a more unified recreational fishing community, such unity was only achieved by inviting only those members of the recreational fishing community who agree with the ASA’s goals and objectives for the red snapper fishery.

But lately, some members of the Gulf’s recreational fishing community, who never made the American Sportfishing Association’s A-list of compliant invitees, are beginning to speak out on red snapper management, and opining that the steady expansion of “access” has probably gone too far.

Such concerns were expressed in an opinion piece that appeared in the June 23 edition of The Destin [FL] Log, titled “Red snapper:  The need to balance access with healthy fishery.”

Written by Capt. Jim Green, the son and grandson of for-hire vessel operators and himself the operator of a 90-foot party boat docked on Florida’s Gulf Coast, the piece notes that

“a lot of the fishermen and women, including myself, feel there are issues with the [Gulf red snapper] stock.  The data—both federal and Gulf states—backs this up.

“For a few years, reports of ‘localized depletion’ have come from all over the Gulf.  At what point can we just call it what it is:  depletion?  All of us want longer seasons, but we want them because of a healthy stock.  The truth is, we’re catching smaller fish more frequently, and more of those fish must be discarded due to size restrictions.  These discards often don’t survive, contributing to mortality—further weakening the stock.

“Once the state recreational and for-hire seasons got over 70 days we started seeing the stock struggle to replenish itself.  Over the last three years the average size fish has decreased, reducing the abundance of large breeding fish, which is the cornerstone of a resilient fish stock.

“As we begin to see the stock decline it creates a chain reaction.  As the older age classes of fish are removed from the stock, it starts to affect the stock’s ability to replenish itself.  A 3-pound fish will provide around 2.5 million eggs, a 7-pound fish almost 50 million, and a 16-pound fish around 125 million eggs per year.

“Longer seasons give opportunity for bigger breeding fish to be harvested, crippling the ability to replenish.  Mature fish produce higher quality eggs, providing greater opportunity to provide a healthier fishery.

“Without enough of these fish, we lose the quality of the next generation.  It’s the reason we need management practices that build resilient stocks with quality access instead of just managing for access alone.”

I’ve written about the situation before, because there seems to be real evidence that the state management measures that have been integrated into the federal recreational red snapper management process have not been the panacea that many recreational spokesmen suggest.  Instead, there is a real possibility—very likely a probability—that the extension of the recreational fishing season, and the increased recreational landings that resulted, have had a negative impact on the Gulf’s red snapper stock.

We’ll know for certain in about a year, when SEDAR 98, a new assessment of the Gulf’s red snapper stock, is released.

In the meantime, the angling industry and various allied organizations are seeking greater “access” to other fish stocks.  I’ve already written about how Michael Waine, another spokesman for the American Sportfishing Association, has questioned efforts to rebuild the striped bass stock, which remains overfished and, since 2019, has experienced recruitment failure in its most important spawning area, saying

“where we, where we’re currently focused is where do we go from here?  We want to avoid the scenario like southern flounder and a scenario like red snapper [where recreational seasons are either very short or fully closed].  We want to make sure…that management is aware of the headwinds but also allows for access for anglers to go out and catch a fish, and so how do we balance these values?  How do we balance building back a population to a conservation level that we can all agree on, which we never likely will, with fishing access, with the ability to actually go out and catch these fish, and what worries me, worries me specifically, is like we’ll go too far, meaning we’ll actually tell people to stop fishing for striped bass…”

Because, of course, when a stock remains overfished, and abundance is falling because the last six years saw the worst spawning success of any six-year period dating back to 1958 or so, when managers first began keeping records, the most important thing is to preserve angler “access” to the dwindling resource.  

And let’s be clear about one other thing:  Although Waine links “access” to anglers’ “ability to actually go out and catch these fish,” it’s not mere “catch” that he’s concerned with, because it’s difficult to imagine a situation where managers decide to completely shut down the entire striped bass fishery, including the catch-and-release component, for the course of the year.

That didn’t even happen back in the early 1980s, when the bass stock collapsed; although a number of states did voluntarily shut down their fisheries for one or more years, a coastwide moratorium was never imposed.

But when Waine says “go out and catch a fish,” what he really means is “go out and kill a fish” for, as a spokesman for the tackle industry’s trade association, he can’t support regulations that might impair sales.

If you want to keep sales strong, “access” to even overfished stocks is important.

But perhaps the most confounding stock, from both a management and “access” standpoint, may be the northern stock of black sea bass, which ranges from New England south to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

In many ways, black sea bass may be the red snapper of the Northeast, although it’s a somewhat imperfect comparison.  Both are structure-oriented bottom fish that aren’t particularly difficult to catch once you find them, anglers value them both as food fish, and both are important targets for the charter and party boat fisheries.

But, where red snapper numbers might be declining, black sea bass spawning stock biomass has been increasing steadily for about the past fifteen years, reaching 30,896 metric tons—and, at 284 percent of the biomass target, the highest SSB every recorded—in 2024.  

Because of that abundance, the Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council, in conjunction with the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, adopted a new approach to recreational black sea bass management that allowed anglers’ landings to exceed the recreational sector’s annual catch limit—and might even allow combined recreational and commercial landings to exceed the overall annual catch limit—with impunity.  One of the stated motivations for pursuing such approach was to

“Accessability aligned with availability/stock status.”

Yet, like red snapper, anglers’ observations—not only my own and those of people I know here on Long Island, but also folks I’ve been in contact with in Massachusetts and Rhode Island—suggest that most of the large sea bass have been removed from the stock.  While that hasn’t yety impacted recruitment-- recruitment of Year 1 fish was 55.1 million and 60.5 million fish in 2022 and 2023, respectively, compared to an annual median recruitment of about 33 million--it could well be leaving us with a large population of fish composed of relatively few year classes. 

A population structured that way can be vulnerable to a situation where a substantial harvest removes most of the older fish from the population at the same time that, for whatever reason, recruitment declines to below-average levels and remains low for a while.  

With the older fish gone and few young fish entering the population, those left in the middle can be squeezed pretty hard.

And it’s just possible that we’re entering a period when conditions won’t support strong black sea bass recruitment.

That’s because black sea bass recruitment success largely depends on the conditions that the Year 0 fish encounter during their first winter near the edge of the continental shelf.  Warmer, more saline water generally leads to strong year classes, while cooler, fresher water tends to keep recruitment low.  And a publication recently released by the National Marine Fisheries Service, “2025 State of the Ecosystem, New England,” informs us that

“Late 2023 and early 2024 observations indicate movement of cooler and fresher water into the Northwest Atlantic, although there are seasonal and local exceptions to this pattern.  Anomalously cold and low salinity conditions were recorded throughout the Northwest Shelf and were widespread across the Slope Sea for much of the year.  These cooler and fresher conditions are linked to the southward movement of the eastern portion of the Gulf Stream and possibly an increased influx of Labrador Slope and Scotian Shelf water into the system…

“Colder, fresher water detected deep in the Jordan Basin [of the Gulf of Maine] for the first half of 2024 suggests an influx of Labrador Slope and Scotian Shelf water, which resulted in colder and fresher conditions throughout the Northwest Atlantic and contributed to the increased size and colder temperatures of the Mid-Atlantic Cold Pool.”

A NMFS press release related to that publication noted that

“A companion longer-term outlook, also developed by NOAA scientists, suggests that more frequent inflows of cooler deep water may continue to temper warming in the basin for the next several years.”

If those observations are accurate, it doesn’t bode well for black sea bass recruitment over the next several years.  2024 recruitment seems to support the notion that recruitment conditions have deteriorated since, after two consecutive years of very high recruitment, 2024 saw recruitment fall to 27.8 million fish, much less than half of what it was the year before, and below the long-term average.  Of course, one year doesn’t constitute a pattern, and it is entirely possible that 2024 recruitment was an anomaly, and that 2025 will see a significant increase.

Yet it is also very possible that 2024 saw the stock’s expected response to the first year of unfavorable recruitment conditions, and that such below-average recruitment will become the norm until warmer, more saline water returns to those parts of the continental shelf where young black sea bass spend their first winter.

Thus, in the case of black sea bass, as in the case of Gulf red snapper, Atlantic striped bass, and more than a few other species, it may be time for fisheries managers to spend less time worrying about angler access, and more time trying to maintain the long-term health and abundance of important fish stocks.  For in the end, if the fish are abundant, there will be sufficient access for all.

 

 

 

UNEXPECTED OPPORTUNITY TO HALT NORTH CAROLINA'S INSHORE SHRIMP TRAWLS

 

Over the past few years, North Carolina has been a hotbed of marine fisheries management efforts.

About five years ago, the Coastal Conservation Association’s North Carolina chapter, joined by 86 individuals that included five former members of the state’s Marine Fisheries Commission, sued the North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries, alleging that, as the publication Carolina Sportsman reported, that,

“the agency…has been an ‘abject failure’ in meeting its legal duties to manage coastal fishing stocks in a manner that would fulfill its constitutional ‘public trust responsibilities’ and protect ‘public trust rights’ to fish in coastal waters.”

Since then, the lawsuit has survived the state’s motion to dismiss, and continues to move forward.

More recently, North Carolina fisheries managers have recognized that the Albemarle-Roanoke stock of striped bass is in serious trouble, experiencing serial spawning failures, and is taking heroic actions in an effort to reverse its decline.

Last year, the North Carolina legislature passed a bill requiring anglers to report their catches of five important recreational species, thus imposing new duties on not only the state’s anglers, but also on its fisheries managers, without ever consulting with such managers to determine whether such reporting was needed—and without providing adequate funding to support the reporting program.

Last fall, in the face of a collapsing stock and severe recreational overharvest, North Carolina shut down its recreational southern flounder fishery, only to have a panel of amateur fisheries managers on the state’s Wildlife Resources Commission challenge the professionals’ decision, and permit some harvest in certain estuaries and the lower reaches of coastal rivers.

A little over three months ago, the state adopted the first set of regulations anywhere on the coast that were designed to prevent the overharvest of false albacore.  Kicking in only if annual harvest grossly exceeds current levels, the new regulations are designed to impose precautionary commercial trip limits and a bag limit for anglers if the specified harvest cap is exceeded.

And just last month, the North Carolina House passed a bill that would override the professional judgment of the state’s fisheries managers, and open a six-week—or perhaps longer—recreational season, while establishing a 750,000 pound commercial quota, all without reference to fisheries science or the condition of the southern flounder stock.  The bill would also set scientifically unsupportable regulations for red snapper caught within state waters.

But what the House never realized, and certainly didn’t expect, was that its bad southern flounder bill might become a vehicle to do some real good for North Carolina’s coastal ecosystems.

It happened when the House’s southern flounder bill was sent to the state Senate for further action.  Legislators in the House hoped, and probably expected, the Senate to rubber stamp their action, but something very different, and far more controversial, occurred.

After the bill was sent to the Senate, it was referred to the Senate’s Agriculture, Energy, and Environment Committee for initial consideration.  It was moved forward by that committee, and also by the Senate’s Rules and Operations Committee, but only after it was amended to

“prohibit the use of trawl nets to take shrimp in coastal fishing waters or the Atlantic Ocean within one-half mile of shoreline.”

That was certainly not what the original House sponsors either expected or intended.  However, the change drew significant support.

Tim Gestwicki, the CEO of the  North Carolina Wildlife Federation, stated that

“The North Carolina Senate has taken a bold and necessary step to protect our state’s precious public trust resources on the coast.  We thank them for demonstrating their commitment to preserving North Carolina’s marine habitats for current and future generations and urge their colleagues in the House to follow suit.”

Another spokesman for the North Carolina Wildlife Federation, Thomas Bell, said that the bill

“addresses a major threat to the long-term health of North Carolina fisheries offshore,”

and observed that

“Shrimp trawling severely impacts the fisheries we depend on, killing millions of juvenile fish, degrading essential habitats and putting enormous pressure on our collapsing fish populations, including spot croaker and flounder.”

The North Carolina Marine and Estuary Foundation was equally supportive, acknowledging that North Carolina

“has been a leader in the effort to reduce bycatch,”

but also noting that

“although the need to protect critical habitat is well documented, legislative action in necessary to ensure the enhancement of nearly 900,000 additional acres of inshore habitats that are critical to our fish and shellfish populations.  After careful review of the available science, our foundation’s conclusion is that the shrimp trawl regulation, as proposed in House Bill 442, would bring a huge step closer to this protection goal.”

Senate proponents of the bill believe that it is needed to put North Carolina fisheries management on an equal footing with that in other states.  Senator David W. Craven, Jr. (R-Anson), observed that

“This will pair us up with our surrounding coastal states, with Virginia and South Carolina,”

both of which already prohibit shrimp trawling in their nearshore waters.

Naturally, some legislators from coastal districts where shrimp trawling occurs disagree, although their opposition seems tied to economic, rather than environmental, concerns.  Senator Bobby Hanig (R-Currituck) saw the bill as a product of lawmakers responding to improper political influences, saying

“It’s been no secret that the [Coastal Conservation Association] and the [North Carolina] Wildlife Federation have been in full on assault against the commercial fishermen for years.

“Now they have the attention of a few influential politicians to help them with their agenda.  Isn’t that convenient?  This amendment is about money and influence, nothing less.”

Hanig also opined that

“Banning shrimp trawling in inshore waters will destroy commercial fishing in North Carolina.  Without the shrimp trawl, many of our fish houses are going to close.  People are going to lose jobs.  It’s going to decimate our fishing industry.”

Similar opinions were voiced by Senator Norman Sanderson (R-Pamlico), who stated that

“I don’t think I’ve ever intentionally voted to deny someone the ability to work and to put them out of business.  And I’m not going to start with this bill in the current term.

“Right now, we are giving foreign countries the upper hand in producing our seafood…If it comes to that, I cannot and will not vote for House Bill 442.”

Opponents of the bill, like its supporters, belong to both political parties.  Senator Joyce Waddell (D-Charlotte) said that

“I would like to believe it is to support small businesses in regards to fishing, with all of the changes happening throughout  the country, we must support small businesses as much as possible.  Shrimp trawling has been a pillar of the local economy for many Eastern North Carolinians, and many of them have come to the office to share their concerns.  The proposed limitations could reduce access to critical harvesting areas, and it could also disrupt livelihoods and further strain a sector already facing rising fuel costs, competition from imports, and a lot of other things.”

The opponents of the bill had their ironic moments, such as when Hanig asked

“what data was used to support the amendment to put the hardworking men and women that work in our fishing industry every day out of a job and completely shut down and entire industry?”

even though he never expressed such concerns about the original, unamended version of the bill, which he called a

“great step forward, one that restores reasonable access to flounder for both recreational and commercial fisheries,”

even though the original bill would have opened up a substantial recreational fishing season and established a large commercial quota for southern flounder, not only without any supporting data, but contrary to the data developed by North Carolina fishery managers (the amended bill still addresses southern flounder, but no longer dictates that state managers issue a proclamation adopting the recreational season and commercial quota; instead, such issues will be subject to the customary state rulemaking process).

Supporters of the amended bill, such as Cameron Boltes, a former member of North Carolina’s Marine Fisheries Commission, counters claims that the legislation would end shrimp trawling in North Carolina, saying,

“The big point of clarification I want to make is that the bill is not a ban on trawling in North Carolina.  It’s in alignment with the best management practices used in every other state in the Southeast.”

Senator Bill Rabon (R-Brunswick) also noted that North Carolina’s inshore shrimp fishery was an anomaly that needed to be corrected.

“This is just an archaic thing that we have allowed.  It’s going to take a lot of fortitude for people to stand up and say, ‘I really don’t like it, but it is the best policy.’  And at the end of the day, our challenge here is good policy, not friendships, friends at home.  I have friends at home that are in the business.”

In the end, such comments must have been convincing, because the North Carolina Senate passed the amended bill on a vote of 39 in favor, 2 against last Thursday.

Now, because of the shrimp trawl amendment, the bill must return to the House for another vote.

Representative Edward Goodwin (R-Chowan), one of the original sponsors of the bill in the General Assembly, has declared

“This will not pass the House.  We had a great bill (HR 442) which only sought to re-open the Southern Flounder and Red Snapper season that was shut down by [North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries] proclamation.  The problem came when Senator Bill Rabon, Senate Rules Chairman, added this anti-trawling amendment at the 11^th hour.”

He went on to assert that

“I am leading the fight in the NC House to stop this amendment that will effectively the shrimping industry and put thousands of hard-working North Carolinians out of work and destroy a century old way of life.  The commercial fishermen and shrimpers are the backbone of our excellent and vibrant seafood industry, and I will fight until last dog dies to protect it.”

There are other people and organizations who support the bill.  One, the American Saltwater Guides Association argues that

“Each year, hundreds of millions of fish are killed as collateral damage from large-scale, inshore bottom shrimp trawling in North Carolina estuaries…While other Atlantic and Gulf states have taken action to phase out  this type of outdated gear in their most sensitive nursery areas, North Carolina stands alone in allowing it to continue…

“This isn’t a niche issue.  It’s not about choosing shrimp over sportfish.  It’s about the future of North Carolina’s coastal economy, habitat, and way of life.  The majority of species killed in shrimp trawl bycatch—Southern Flounder, weakfish, croaker, spot, and blue crab—are already in serious trouble.  They’re being scooped up before they can spawn…For every pound of shrimp harvested, more than four pounds of juvenile fish and other marine life are discarded.  That’s not just wasteful—it’s unsustainable…”

The Guides Association’s website [click here to access] contains information on how concerned persons can voice their opinions on the amended bill, which will probably come up for a vote at some point this week—perhaps even in the next couple of days.

Some people will undoubtedly try to cast the amended bill, and the abolition of inshore shrimp trawls, as a traditional commercial/recreational conflict, where “rich,” “connected,” and/or “elitist” (you choose the words) recreational fishermen are trying to push “poor,” “hard-working,” “honest,” “traditional” commercial fishermen off the water, so that the anglers can hog all the fish for themselves.

But that’s not what this is about at all.

When fish stocks decline, everyone suffers—commercial and recreational fishermen alike.  The amended bill, restricting the use of shrimp trawls, isn’t about giving recreational fishermen a bigger piece of North Carolina’s marine resources pie, while the commercial sector goes hungry.

Instead, it is about making ther finfish pie bigger, so that both commercial and recreational fishermen can come to the table and, with inshore nursery areas and the juvenile fish they support no longer impaired by shrimp trawls, everyone can walk away satisfied.

ATLANTIC BLUEFIN TUNA: TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING?

 

In recent years, fishermen have seen a resurgence of Atlantic bluefin tuna off the United States coast, with 2024 commercial and recreational landings some of the highest in many years.

In fact, as things stand now, 2024 bluefin landings, when combined with dead discards, were a little too high. At 1,613.9 metric tons (mt), they exceeded the 2024 base quota of 1,341 mt by 20 percent; even when the 2024 quota was adjusted by adding the 134.1 mt of bluefin quota that was left unharvested in 2023, 2024 catch exceeded the United States quota by about nine percent.

Fishermen in almost all of the various permit categories exceeded their bluefin quotas in 2024. On a strictly percentage basis, the Angling category, which is limited to people who catch their bluefin with rod and reel or with handlines and don’t sell their fish (including fish caught from charter boats and headboats), had the most egregious overage, exceeding their adjusted 2024 quota by 152 percent. That overage spanned every size category of bluefin that could be legally harvested, with school bluefin (27 to 47 inches) landings 14 percent over-quota, large school/small medium (47 to 73 inches) over by 83 percent, and trophy (73 inches and larger) bluefin landings 102 percent above quota.

The General category, which includes commercial fishermen who catch their bluefin on rod and reel (including most bluefin over 73 inches caught from charter boats and headboats), handlines, bandit gear, or greensticks, as well as some of the fishermen who use harpoons, is the largest single category, having been allocated nearly 58 percent of the adjusted quota. It exceeded that quota by four percent, while the commercial Harpoon category, limited to fishermen who only use that one type of gear, exceeded its quota by eight percent.

However, two commercial bycatch-only categories did fail to fill their entire 2024 Atlantic bluefin quotas.

One was the Longline category, which includes bluefin caught as bycatch while targeting swordfish and/or yellowfin and bigeye tuna. Its landings were 33 percent under the applicable quota. Longliners in the Atlantic Ocean actually exceeded their quota by 12 percent, but that overage was more than offset by low landings in the Gulf of Mexico, where longliners only harvested eight percent of their adjusted quota.

The other category that came in under quota was the tiny Trap category, which is allocated only 1.3 metric tons of bluefin, and is limited to fishermen who accidentally catch a bluefin over 73 inches long in a pound net or weir. It reported no 2024 landings at all.

Now, the fisheries managers at the National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS) Highly Migratory Species Division must do their best to ensure that the United States stays within its Atlantic bluefin tuna quota in 2025, for if it does not, it could face sanctions from the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT), which describes itself as “an inter-governmental fisheries organization responsible for the conservation of tunas and tuna-like species in the Atlantic Ocean and its adjacent seas.”

ICCAT was created in 1969 by a group of nations, known as “contracting parties,” which recognized that fish such as bluefin tuna, which migrate across entire ocean basins, cannot be adequately managed by any one country, but only by an international organization with the authority to adopt rules that transcend national boundaries. It is currently composed of 54 individual nations plus the European Union (thus, 81 nations in all), which have agreed to abide by ICCAT’s Basic Texts, which include its founding document, the International Convention for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (Convention), plus other governing rules, resolutions, and agreements.

ICCAT has adopted rules for the bluefin tuna fishery that the United States, as a signatory to the Convention, is bound to follow. In 1975, Congress passed the Atlantic Tunas Convention Act, which authorized NMFS to administer and enforce ICCAT’s fishery management measures.

As part of the bluefin management process, ICCAT assigns catch quotas to each contracting party participating in the fishery. Should any contracting party exceed its annual quota, it is required to repay the overage, pound-for-pound, in the next year. If a contracting party fails to catch its entire quota, the uncaught amount, up to 10% of the annual quota, may be added to the following year’s landings.

Things get a little trickier if a contracting party exceeds its quota for two consecutive years. Should that happen, ICCAT may reduce that party’s quota in the following year not just by the amount of the overharvest, but by 125 percent of that amount, as an incentive to avoid excess landings.

That is the situation that the United States is currently trying to avoid. To do so, it is going to have to substantially reduce both commercial and recreational landings, compared to what they were in 2024.

In the commercial fishery, that’s relatively easy to do. Quotas can be reduced, and as landings are reported in near real-time, it is relatively easy for NMFS to shut down a fishery in time to prevent overharvest. In the case of commercial fisheries, NMFS most difficult task is to set seasonal harvest limits, and impose season closures, in such a way that they have a more-or-less equitable impact along the entire coast, something that can be hard to do, given that fisheries begin, peak, and end at different times in different regions.

Regulating recreational fisheries is far more difficult. While United States anglers are required to report Atlantic bluefin tuna landings within 24 hours after they occur, that requirement is largely honored in the breach; at the most recent meeting of NMFS’ Highly Migratory Species Advisory Panel (HMS AP), held during the first week of May 2025 (May AP meeting), attendees were told that only about 40 percent, or perhaps slightly more, of all recreationally-caught bluefin tuna are actually reported to NMFS as required.

That leaves NMFS heavily reliant on its Large Pelagic Survey (LPS) for recreational catch information. The LPS is a telephone-based survey of Angling and Charter/Headboat category permit holders fishing out of ports between Maine and Virginia, which runs from July through October in Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, and June through October in the other participating states. In 2024, about 73 percent of recreational bluefin landings were estimated through the LPS, 11 percent through required angler reporting, and the rest through catch cards that Maryland and North Carolina required offshore anglers to fill out and submit (the North Carolina catch card program was terminated at the end of 2024 and will no longer be used).

Collating and analyzing the LPS data, and calculating landings estimates based on that data takes time; unlike commercial landings data, recreational landings estimates cannot be produced in anything close to real-time. As a result, those estimates released well after the landings take place, which makes it far more likely that recreational seasons won’t be closed until anglers have already exceeded their quotas.

At the May AP meeting, NMFS fisheries managers stated that recreational retention limits, which provided two school bluefin and one large school or small medium fish to private boats, three school bluefin and one large school or small medium to charter boats, and 12 school bluefin and two small mediums to headboats in 2024, would have to be slashed for the 2025 season. The most likely regulations would allow a single bluefin, measuring between 27 and 73 inches in length, to all recreational vessels. The season would nominally end on December 31 although, as a practical matter, it was expected to be closed sometime in late summer, the exact date depending on how quickly the Angling category quota was caught. Season length would also depend on how many bluefin had already been caught by anglers in 2025, and how much such bluefin had already contributed to the Angling category quota.

Not surprisingly, HMS AP members associated with the recreational fishing and boating industries were not pleased with the proposed harvest limits. LPS is generally well-regarded, and does not attract the sort of criticism often leveled at the Marine Recreational Information Program, which is used to gather data on many other recreational fisheries, so some of those industry-connected members began their comments by generally praising the survey, but then suggesting that perhaps, just in the case of 2024 bluefin landings, LPS might have encountered some sort of “data outlier” that caused it to overestimate Angling category catch. However, such possibility was discounted by NMFS staff, with John Foster, the Technical Branch Director dealing with recreational fisheries statistics, calling such comments “speculation” and stating that, if the 2024 data was reanalyzed, there would “Probably not [be] a significant directional change.”

There were just a lot of bluefin tuna available to anglers in 2024, and recreational landings were high.

Representatives of the charter and headboat fleet also objected to the proposed retention limits, although they seemed more willing to accept the accuracy of the data and focused on obtaining special regulations that would allow them to retain more bluefin each day than private vessels (although, as one HMS AP member noted, those extra fish had to come from somewhere, and the only possible source were private boat anglers). One NMFS fisheries manager, acknowledging that all fisheries regulations involve tradeoffs, asked what was more important to the for-hire operators: a higher bag limit or a longer season, for they could not have both without exceeding the reduced 2025 Angling quota. But the question drew little response.

As the May AP meeting ended, a recreational boat limit of one 27- to 73-inch bluefin seemed likely. While many HMS AP members were not happy with that outcome, they generally recognized that the United States was locked into an annual quota, that it had apparently exceeded that quota in 2024, and that Angling category bag limits had to be sharply cut back as a result. They understood that the reductions in the retention limits didn’t reflect any shortage of bluefin, which everyone agreed were abundant, but instead reflected the need to keep recreational landings, and all United States landings, within the quota set by ICCAT.

So, the revised Angling category retention limits released by NMFS on May 29, 2025 probably caught both HMS AP members and most bluefin tuna anglers by surprise.

Instead of allowing anglers to take one bluefin per day, so long as it measured between 27 and 73 inches long, NMFS put large school and small medium bluefin tuna completely off-limits to the Angling category. Instead, recreational fishermen wouldmay only be allowed to harvest school bluefin in 2025, with private boats ableallowed to keep one fish per day, and charter boats and headboats allowed to keep two.

While anglers were undoubtedly disappointed that the 47- to 73-inch bluefin, which were so important to the recreational fishery in 2024, may not be landed, 2024 data demonstrates that NMFS’ action made sense. Out of an estimated 17,051 bluefin landed in 2024, 12,482, or about 73 percent, were school-sized fish. But while the number of school tuna landed by anglers was far larger than that of any other size of bluefin, when measured by weight, they represented less than 34 percent of 2024 recreational bluefin landings. By limiting recreational landings to the smallest legal category of fish (“small school” tuna less than 27 inches long must always be released), NMFS could give charter boats and headboats the extra fish that they sought, while extending the length of the season and helping to ensure that the Angling category quota would not be exceeded.

The recreational fishing industry quickly attacked NMFS’ decision to limit harvest to school bluefin. A May 30, 2025 article in On the Water magazine quoted Glenn Hughes, president of the American Sportfishing Association, the largest recreational fishing industry trade association, as saying “We’re disappointed in NOAA’s revised 2025 retention limits for the bluefin tuna Angling category because of its associated negative economic impacts. These restrictions threaten revenue, jobs, and fishing opportunities for the sportfishing industry—affecting anglers, charter operators, and coastal businesses.”

Hughes went on to opine, “As the bluefin tuna stock rebuilds, securing additional access is reasonable and necessary to reflect improved stock health and to maximize the fishery’s value to America’s sportfishing economy.” However, Hughes did not elaborate on why he felt that Canada, Japan, Mexico, or any other nation with Western Atlantic bluefin quota would be willing to give up some of that quota so that United States anglers might land more bluefin and “America’s sportfishing economy” might thrive.

Another article, which appeared in the trade publication Fishing Tackle Retailer on June 2, 2025, sounded similar themes. Written by Tom Fucini, the northeast sales representative for Folsom Corp., a New Jersey-based fishing tackle manufacturer and distributor, it noted that “This [regulatory] update brings a major reduction in both the number and size of fish that recreational anglers can harvest,” observed that “In many parts of the region the Bluefin bite in recent years has consisted of predominantly 50-70″ class fish—these fish are ineligible for harvest in 2025,” and warned tackle shop owners that “Over the past few seasons, Northeast Anglers have seen a “Tuna Boom,” with many new anglers getting into the fishery…These new limits threaten to slow that momentum.”

Fucini went on to call the new bluefin regulations “a dramatic step backward,” and after leveling additional criticisms at NMFS, told readers that “If you’d like to voice your concerns about how these changes will affect retailers, charter boats, and manufacturers in the fishing industry, you can contact NOAA directly, [emphasis omitted]” while providing the necessary contact information.

Neither the On the Water article nor the piece in Fishing Tackle Retailer provided NMFS’ perspective on recreational bluefin tuna management, and there was no indication that any of NMFS’ bluefin tuna managers were even contacted before the articles were written.

However, the industry’s concerns seem to have struck a chord with someone at NMFS, or perhaps with someone at the Department of Commerce, NMFS’ parent agency, because on June 12, 2025, NMFS issued a third set of bluefin tuna regulations, which are the most permissive of any rules issued this year. Pursuant to the newly-issued rule, beginning on July 1, 2025, all permitted Angling category vessels (including for-hire vessels fishing under Angling category rules) will again be able to retain one bluefin tuna between 27 and 73 inches in length, while headboats and charter boats will also be able to retain a second bluefin between 27 and 47 inches long.

The new size and bag limits are supposed to remain in force through the end of 2025, but there is little chance that will actually happen. Instead, NMFS will almost certainly close the Angling category season early, probably before Labor Day, as recreational bluefin landings begin to approach the Angling category quota.

Because most bluefin tuna anglers don’t report their landings, and because of the inevitable lag in calculating LPS results, there is a very good chance that NMFS will be unable to close the Angling category fishery before its quota is exceeded. Should that occur, the Angling category will have to pay back its overage in 2026, when it will again face a reduced quota. And, should commercial bluefin landings be high enough that, when combined with recreational landings, the United States exceeds its overall bluefin quota for the second year in a row, the Angling category may have to pay back 125 percent of its overage, rather than merely paying it back pound-for-pound.

Thus, the new rules could easily result in more hardship for the Angling category. If anglers and the angling industry had accepted the consequences of exceeding their 2024 quota, they would have faced a difficult 2025 season, but would have been able to enter 2026 with a clean slate and a higher quota. Instead, the more liberal management measures sought by the recreational fishing industry, and announced by NMFS on June 12, could easily lead to exceeding the Angling category quota again in 2025, and anglers facing paybacks, a reduced quota, and restrictive management measures in 2026, when the consequences of exceeding the overall ICCAT quota could be more severe.

As is too often the case in fisheries management, it may turn out to be one more example of a focus on short-term landings leading to unnecessary and easily avoidable harm later on.

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This essay first appeared in “From the Waterfront,” the blog of the Marine Fish Conservation Network, which can be found at http://conservefish.org/blog/

DEFENDING POOR DECISIONS: GULF OF MEXICO RED SNAPPER

 

Recreational red snapper management in the Gulf of Mexico may be one of the clearest examples of what happens when values conflict, and the precautionary approach of federal fisheries managers attempting to fully rebuild the stock clash with the more permissive philosophy of state managers trying to satisfy the fishing tackle and boating industries as well as “anglers’ rights” advocates, which seek to maximize harvest even if it harms the long-term health of the stock.

Currently, the membership of the most relevant management body, the Gulf Fishery Management Council, is slanted toward the recreational industry, resulting in management actions that favor exploitation over conservation.

As a result, there are signs that the Gulf’s red snapper population may be suffering from excessive recreational fishing pressure, as anglers and charter boat operators see the average size of the red snapper they catch decline, and find it necessary to run farther and farther from port to locate quality fish.  I’ve written about this trend before, and how party and charter boat captains in the eastern Gulf have grown concerned that overly liberal regulations, and in particular overly long seasons, may be doing harm to the red snapper stock.  My most recent essay on the subject, published early last month, was titled “Gulf of Mexico Red Snapper:  Are States Setting Themselves Up to Fail?”

Now, it looks like some states are asking themselves the same question.  But instead of taking a long look at the management actions they’ve taken, and asking themselves whether they might have gone too far too fast when lengthening seasons, they’re digging in and defending past decisions, even in light of strong indications that they’re on the wrong course.

Alabama provides a good example.

The first comments came not from the state, but in an article written by an ally of the industry and anglers’ rights groups.  Titled “Alabama Red Snapper Population Booms to 7M:  Best In a Decade,” it appeared on Wired2Fish.com,

“Finally, there’s solid proof that Gulf red snapper populations are in superb shape, with 7 million fish found along just the 50-mile-wide Alabama coastline.  This is precisely what many Southern marine anglers, guides, and charter captains have been yelling to anyone who would listen for over a decade.

“Research scientists at the University of South Alabama’s Marine Sciences school have proven that red snapper populations are the healthiest they’ve been in at least 14 years…

“Much the same healthy snapper populations are touted in Gulf waters off Florida’s Panhandle, and off Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas…

“Ted Venker, Vice President of the Coastal Conservation Association (CCA), says federal fisheries managers governing snapper at the federal National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) have been at odds with anglers and state and regional fisheries managers for years.

“They have gone back and forth in opposing positions with the federal Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council and state agencies regarding red snapper stock assessments that dictate snapper limits and seasons for fishermen.

“’Like a good federal government agency, NOAA Fisheries [NMFS] believes its data is the only right data,’ says Venker.  ‘Rather than continue to insist that it is always the smartest entity in the room, NOAA Fisheries should work on being a better partner to the Gulf states as well as the angling public, before cramming down damaging, punitive measure[s].’”

As is so typical of such intentionally slanted articles, the Wired2Fish piece leaves much unsaid.  Most notable is that it never mentioned that Gulf red snapper were severely overfished during the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s,  and were still found to be overfished as recently as 2014; while the 2018 red snapper stock assessment found that the stock was no longer overfished, that was only because the Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council moved the goalposts, and reduced the level of spawning stock biomass needed for a “not overfished” finding.  So, the 2018 assessment stated that

“An important caveat to this result [that the stock is no longer overfished] is that under the previous definition of [Minimum Stock Size Threshold] the red snapper resource would still be considered to be overfished.”

Thus, the fact that “red snapper populations are the healthiest they’ve been in at least 14 years” is hardly remarkable; the stock has been subject to a so-far successful rebuilding plan and, thanks to the very “damaging, punitive measure[s] that the CCA’s Venker condemned, as well as to the federal fisheries managers that he criticized, there are definitely more red snapper in the Gulf than there were a decade ago.

But the decline in fish size is a signal that the recovery might stall, although state fishery managers are still doing their best to ignore the red flags.

That was made clear in a second article, this one appearing in Outdoor Alabama, the publication of the Alabama Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, which declared that the “Start of Alabama Red Snapper Season Confirms Abundance.”

The Outdoor Alabama piece began by celebrating the number of red snapper caught by local anglers, who had managed to land 135,193 pounds of fish—about one-fifth of the state’s 2025 quota—by June 1.  It also heralded the findings of the University of South Alabama study, and quoted Dr. Sean Powers, the Director of the University’s School of Marine and Environmental Sciences, who said,

“The trend in both surveys indicates a higher number of red snapper since the surveys began, [one] in 1998 and [the other, using a remotely operated vehicle to photograph the life on bottom structure] in 2011.”

But, once again, that is what one would expect to see once a badly overfished stock begins to respond to a rebuilding plan.

Dr. Powers then addressed the shrinking fish size, finishing with a surprising comment:

“During the last five or six years, we’ve seen the average size of red snapper decrease.  We believe that is because of fishing pressure.  But we have tons of new fish coming in every year.  It may very well be that, without the large snapper on the reef, it makes more room for the small snapper…”

And maybe it does, but that doesn’t mean that the more abundant small snapper take the place of the big ones, particularly when it comes to maintaining the health of the stock.

Red snapper are one of those fish that engage in “batch spawning,” producing eggs on multiple occasions during the year instead of in a single spawning event.  And there is little question that larger red snapper produce more eggs, both on an absolute and on a proportionate basis, than do the smaller ones.  A paper published in 2022 by Nancy J. Brown-Peterson and Anna K. Millender, titled "The Reproductive Biology of Red Snapper in Mississippi Waters,” reported finding as few as 596 eggs in a female red snapper that was 376 millimeters (14.8 inches) long, and as many as 349,754 eggs in a 568 mm (22.4 inch) individual.  The paper goes on to state that

“Batch fecundity [the number of eggs produced in a single spawning event] is significantly, positively correlated with fish length…There was a significant difference in [batch fecundity] by age…with [batch fecundity] generally higher in fish > 4 years.”

Such finding raises the question of how many of the allegedly abundant “small snapper” it takes to replace each missing “large snapper,” from the standpoint of maintaining recruitment levels and best ensuring the long-term health of the stock.  For, apparently, a lot of large snapper are missing, as Dr. Powers observed that

“The other thing we can calculate in our surveys is the weight of all the snapper around the artificial reef.  If you look at the total weight number, it’s about the same over the past five years.  But instead of having big, medium and small snapper, we now have small and medium snapper.”

Which is just what the concerned anglers and charter boat operators are observing.  But Dr. Powers doesn’t seem as concerned as they are over the loss of the larger snapper, perhaps because Alabama has decided to side with the tackle industry and anglers’ rights groups, rather than with the federal managers who are rebuilding the fishery.

Outdoor Alabama reported that

“Powers said that people have asked him what’s wrong with the red snapper fishing because they are discarding more fish because the average size is lower.  However, Powers said a significant change would have to be made the season length [sic] to change the population dynamics.

“’If they want to go back to where the average size is 10 pounds, then we have to go back to nine-day seasons,’ he said.  ‘Those big fish are still out there, but it’s not as easy to catch one.  I am confident that everybody can go out there and get their two 16-inch (minimum size) snapper relatively easily.  For really big snapper, you have to target them.  You have to have better sites that aren’t fished that much, and you have to be a fisherman again.’”

It’s clear from that statement that Alabama is intentionally shaping the red snapper stock to be composed primarily of smaller fish, that provide the highest possible landings for the short-term benefit of anglers and angling-related businesses, while ignoring the benefits that older, larger females convey to the population, what another 2022 paper, “Modeling fecundity at age in Gulf of Mexico Red Snapper to help evaluate the best measure of reproductive potential,” calls

“a general acceptance that BOFFFFs, i.e., Big Old Fat Fecund Female Fish are essential for the successful maintenance of long-term fish populations.”

Dr. Powell sets forth the Alabama position very clearly.

“[E]verything is a balance.  If you want a snapper season that consistently lasts through the summer, then you’re going to have to accept that it’s going to be a little more difficult to catch a legal snapper.  You’re really going to have to be a skilled fisherman and do your research to catch a big snapper…

“We also know that some anglers want to catch fish of a certain size.  When we started state management, we knew we could manage for people to fish a lot or we could manage for big fish.  If you’re going to manage for big fish, that means a much shorter season.  We decided on a season where people could go as many days as possible when it’s convenient for them, and they’ll still be able to keep legal fish.”

Of course, whether they’ll still be able to keep legal fish—or, more accurately, whether they’ll still be able to find legal fish to keep—a few years from now is a question yet to be answered.

 

OCEAN COOLING COULD IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FISHERIES

 

In recent years, the Gulf of Maine has been one of the world’s most rapidly warming ocean regions.  But, for a while at least, that may change.

A publication recently released by the National Marine Fisheries Service, titled “2025 State of the Ecosystem, New England,” noted that

“2024 global sea surface and air temperatures exceeded 2023 as the warmest year on record, but colder than average temperatures were observed in the Northeast U.S.  Oceanographic and ecological conditions in the Northwest Atlantic were markedly different in 2024 compared to recent years.

“…Late 2023 and early 2024 observations indicate movement of cooler and fresher water into the Northwest Atlantic, although there are seasonal and local exceptions to this pattern.  Anomalously cold and low salinity conditions were recorded throughout the Northeast Shelf and were widespread across the Slope Sea for much of the year.  These cooler and fresher conditions are linked to the southward movement of the eastern portion of the Gulf Stream and possibly an increased influx of Labrador Slope and Scotian Shelf water into the system.”

The cooler, fresher water wasn’t limited to the Gulf of Maine.  In February 2024, sea surface temperatures along the outer continental shelf were between 2.5 and 5 degrees Centigrade lower than the average February temperature for the years 2000 through 2020, even though waters closer inshore somewhat exceeded the long-term average temperature.  The NMFS publication stated that

“Colder, fresher water detected deep in the Jordan Basin [region of the Gulf of Maine] for the first half of 2024 suggests and influx of Labrador Slope and Scotian Shelf water, which resulted in colder and fresher conditions throughout the Northwest Atlantic and contributed to the increased size and colder temperatures of the Mid-Atlantic Cold Pool.”

A recent, related NMFS news release said that

“Researchers expect the Gulf of Maine to be 0.9 to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 to 1 degree Celsius) cooler this summer [of 2025] compared to the average summer temperature…

“A companion longer-term outlook, also developed by NOAA scientists, suggests that more frequent inflows of cooler deep water may continue to temper warming in the basin for the next several years.”

The 2005 State of the Ecosystem report reveals that

“the center of distribution for a suite of 48 commercially or ecologically important fish species along the entire Northeast Shelf continues to show movement toward the northeast and generally into deeper water.  Habitat model-based species richness suggest shifts of both cooler and warmer water species to the northeast.”

However, since it also notes that

“Long-term oceanographic projections forecast a temporary pause in warming over the next decade due to internal variability in circulation and a southward shift of the Gulf Stream,”

it is reasonable to ask whether the current cooling trend will interrupt the northeastward shift in fish stocks, and how fish stocks will react to the cooling water.

The recent NMFS release provides some insight, stating that

“Bottom-water temperatures influence the productivity of groundfish, like cod, haddock, pollock, and several species of flounder, which prefer cooler water.  Lobster, the most valuable fishery in the northeast, are also temperature-sensitive.  Warming waters along the New England coast in recent decades have contributed to the collapse of the southern New England lobster population while the Gulf of Maine population has boomed.  Researchers expect that cooler waters will impact this economically and culturally important species.”

Given that the cooler water extends into the Mid-Atlantic, it’s hard not to wonder whether anyone might be regretting the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s American Lobster Management Board’s decision not to adopt a moratorium on harvest of the southern New England lobster stock, as recommended by the American Lobster Technical Committee in 2010.  At the time, the Technical Committee only recommended a 5-year-long moratorium, but observed that

“Environmental changes, most notably temperature, likely have forced lobster to seek more suitable habitat in deeper water.  Larvae produced by displaced lobster may be lost to traditional inshore nursery grounds.  The fishery has adapted to the changes in the resource by shifting effort further offshore.  However, fishing continues in most inshore portions of [southern New England], and continued harvest represents lost spawning stock.

“A moratorium provides the maximum likelihood to rebuild the stock to a level that can support a sustainable fishery.  Rebuilding the currently depleted [southern New England] stock may take longer than five years.  Cady and Agnew (2004) reviewed stock recoveries of depleted marine resources and reported that invertebrate fisheries most likely to recover were those with reductions in predator pressure, in the center of their geographic range and under favorable regimes.  They that the predicted length of recoveries should be treated with caution and conclude that a few stocks have recovered within a decade, but that most require longer.”

Such a moratorium, if sustained until the stock showed strong signs of recovery, would have maximized the number of breeding-age adults that might have been able to take advantage of the current cooling trend, and might have been able to take advantage of the cooler waters to increase lobster recruitment.  However, that opportunity was lost a long time ago.  The southern New England lobster stock is now at the lowest level of abundance ever recorded, and continues to decline.

However, the cooling may come soon enough to bail out the lobster fishery in the Gulf of Maine, where fishermen who failed to learn any lessons from the collapse of the southern New England stock, adamantly opposed modest restrictions intended to prevent a similar decline off northern New England, and caused the American Lobster Management Board to back off from imposing such restrictions in the Gulf of Maine and off eastern Cape Cod.  It is very possible that the cooling water will reverse a trend of declining lobster recruitment in the region, and that lobstermen will feel vindicated in successfully opposing science-based management—at least until the cooling trend reverses, and increasing water temperatures drive Gulf of Maine lobster recruitment down once again.

But the most interesting question may be how the cooler and less saline waters flowing along the outer continental shelf will impact the black sea bass population.

There is no question that the northern black sea bass stock—that is, the fish found north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina—is healthy, with the biomass at 219 percent of the biomass target at the end of 2023.  However, the 2024 management track stock assessment also predicts that the spawning stock biomass is going to decline significantly over the next few years.

That prediction led to substantial controversy last fall, when the Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council’s Scientific and Statistical Committee, after reviewing the 2024 management track assessment, decided that the allowable biological catch, and ultimately recreational and commercial black sea bass landings, should be reduced by 20 percent.  Members of the Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass Monitoring Committee, which is composed of biologists from the various states, ASMFC, and NMFS, strongly disagreed with the Scientific and Statistical Committee’s advice, questioning why, after a long period of above-average recruitment, the SSC believed that recruitment would fall to more historically typical levels.

The ASMFC’s Summer Flounder, Scup, and Black Sea Bass Management Board, which is not required to follow the Scientific and Statistical Committee’s advice, agreed with the dissenters on the Monitoring Committee and refused to reduce black sea bass catch limits.  The Mid-Atlantic Council, which was bound to follow the SSC’s guidance, did cut landings by 20 percent, creating a rift between federal and state management measures, that NMFS—which also claims not to be bound by the SSC’s decisions—resolved by ignoring the Council advice and extending the ASMFC decision into federal waters.

It was a strange debate and an even stranger resolution, but now we have to ask whether the Scientific and Statistical Committee was really right all along.

That’s because black sea bass recruitment—the number of young fish that enter the population each year—is not primarily driven by the size or the spawning stock or by the number of juvenile fish that are produced.  Instead, recruitment is driven by the oceanographic conditions that the first-winter fish experience when they spend that first winter at or near the edge of the continental shelf.  Warmer, more saline water typically results in strong black sea bass recruitment.  The very strong 2011 year class, which was most prevalent north of Hudson Canyon, can probably be attributed to such favorable conditions, as the 2025 State of the Ecosystem report revealed that

“2012 had among the warmest surface and bottom temperatures in New England.  A large proportion of the Georges Bank and Mid-Atlantic regions had bottom temperatures above the 15^oC thermal tolerance for most groundfish, with some days in the Mid-Atlantic exceeding the 24^oC potential mortality limit.”

Now, with cooler, less saline water expected to prevail for “several years,” there is good reason to believe that the 2024 stock assessment’s predictions of lower black sea bass recruitment may have been right on target, if not, perhaps, a little optimistic, and also to believe that the current regulations, which failed to follow the Scientific and Statistical Committee’s advice and allowed higher harvest than the SSC recommended, may have left the black sea bass stock more vulnerable to the predicted change in ocean conditions.

We can only wait and watch how the situation plays out, to learn how long the cooler, fresher water maintains its presence off New England and the Mid-Atlantic, and also to learn how that presence will affect the current and future abundance of various speces.

But as is always the case when changing ocean conditions add to the uncertainty in managing fish stocks, managers should definitely practice precaution when setting management measures.